Peterborough
vs
Oxford United
Garuda Lions Prediction: Oxford United
0 – 1 Predicted score · 13% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.79 vs 0.76.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Peterborough vs Oxford United overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Peterborough vs Oxford United
| Probability | Peterborough | Draw | Oxford United |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 14.5% | 24.8% | 60.7% |
| Market | 36.2% | 27.2% | 36.7% |
| Final | 30.7% | 26.6% | 42.7% |
| Edge | -5.4% | -0.6% | +6.0% |
Why Oxford United
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.79 vs 0.76.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Oxford United below our published probability: +6.0 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.58, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +10.1% per unit staked (our 42.7% × 2.58 − 1).
Peterborough vs Oxford United match preview
In the upcoming League One match, Peterborough faces Oxford United, with probabilities indicating a 32% chance of a Peterborough win, a 26% chance of a draw, and a 42% likelihood of an Oxford United victory. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 0-1, occurring at a rate of 12%. Peterborough has struggled recently, recording two losses, two draws, and one win in their last five matches, while Oxford United shows a more favorable form with three wins and two draws in their last five outings.
The expected goals for this match suggest Peterborough will score 0.85, while Oxford United is forecasted to net 1.64. The model indicates a 45% probability of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance that both teams will score. The confidence grade for this prediction is C, reflecting a moderate level of certainty in the analysis.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Peterborough and Oxford United expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.55
Peterborough and Oxford United attack and defence ratings
Peterborough
Oxford United
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 15 fixtures
Before and after this match
Peterborough vs Oxford United markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Oxford United | 42.7% | 2.34 | +6.0% | 2.58 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 53.1% | 1.88 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 54.5% | 1.83 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.4% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 39.3% | 2.55 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Peterborough | 30.7% |
| Draw | 26.6% | |
| Oxford United | 42.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 46.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 53.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 45.5% |
| No | 54.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 57.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 69.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Oxford United win | 35.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.8% | |
| Loss | 39.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-1 | 12.9% |
| 0-2 | 12.5% | |
| 1-1 | 11.7% |
Peterborough vs Oxford United stats
Peterborough and Oxford United recent form
| Peterborough |
LLLDLD |
| Oxford United |
LWDWDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Peterborough and Oxford United season so far
Peterborough record
- They have won 2 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 13 matches.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Oxford United record
- They have won 7 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Peterborough vs Oxford United head-to-head
Last 9 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-08-13 | Oxford United | Peterborough | League Cup | 2-0 |
| 2024-05-08 | Peterborough | Oxford United | League One | 1-1 |
| 2024-05-04 | Oxford United | Peterborough | League One | 1-0 |
| 2024-04-13 | Oxford United | Peterborough | League One | 5-0 |
| 2023-12-09 | Peterborough | Oxford United | League One | 3-0 |
| 2023-04-01 | Peterborough | Oxford United | League One | 0-0 |
| 2022-10-22 | Oxford United | Peterborough | League One | 1-2 |
| 2021-07-28 | Oxford United | Peterborough | Friendlies Clubs | 2-2 |
| 2021-03-02 | Oxford United | Peterborough | League One | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Peterborough vs Oxford United odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 36.7%, draw 26.3%, away 37.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.50 | 3.60 | 2.48 |
| Bet365 | 2.50 | 3.60 | 2.40 |
| Betano | 2.52 | 3.70 | 2.47 |
| Marathonbet | 2.60 | 3.38 | 2.53 |
| Pinnacle | 2.76 | 3.31 | 2.58 |
| William Hill | 2.50 | 3.40 | 2.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
27 snapshots recorded, from .