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England FA Cup · Full time ·4th Round Qualifying

AFC Rushden & Diamonds vs Morecambe

2 – 1 Full time

21′AFC Rushden & Diamonds
25′AFC Rushden & Diamonds
27′AFC Rushden & Diamonds
41′AFC Rushden & Diamonds
41′Morecambe
50′Morecambe
51′AFC Rushden & Diamonds
94′AFC Rushden & Diamonds

Hayden Road, Rushden

AFC Rushden & Diamonds 27%
Draw 25%
Morecambe 48%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

15 Shots 15
8 Shots on target 10
37 Possession % 63
4 Corners 5

AFC Rushden & Diamonds vs Morecambe overview

Garuda Lions analysis: AFC Rushden & Diamonds vs Morecambe

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityAFC Rushden & DiamondsDrawMorecambe
Model44.7%29.3%26.0%
Market21.7%23.4%54.9%
Final27.4%24.9%47.7%
Edge+23.0%+5.9%-28.9%

Confidence: Low

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

AFC Rushden & ↓ / Morecambe → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 10% 8% 1 11% 14% 2 9% 9% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 90%
2+ goals 71%
3+ goals 44%
No goals 10%

AFC Rushden & Diamonds and Morecambe expected goals

AFC Rushden & Diamonds 1.41
Morecambe 1.02

Total expected goals: 2.43

AFC Rushden & Diamonds and Morecambe attack and defence ratings

AFC Rushden & Diamonds

Attack 0.98 -2%
Defence 0.76 -24%

Morecambe

Attack 0.90 -10%
Defence 0.80 -20%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

AFC Rushden & Diamonds vs Morecambe: result vs prediction

AFC Rushden & Diamonds 2 – 1 Morecambe

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other 4th Round Qualifying fixtures

England FA Cup

Before and after this match

AFC Rushden & Diamonds vs Morecambe markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Morecambe 47.7% 2.10 -28.9% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 56.1% 1.78 — —
Both teams to score No 50.3% 1.99 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 75.1% 1.33 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 74.0% 1.35 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2AFC Rushden & Diamonds27.4%
Draw24.9%
Morecambe47.7%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.543.9%
Under 2.556.1%
Both teams to scoreYes49.7%
No50.3%
Double chance1X (home or draw)52.3%
12 (either side)75.1%
X2 (draw or away)72.6%
Handicap -1Morecambe win10.1%
Push (exactly one goal)15.9%
Loss74.0%
Correct score (top 3)1-113.9%
1-011.1%
0-010.0%

AFC Rushden & Diamonds vs Morecambe stats

AFC Rushden & Diamonds and Morecambe recent form

newest first
AFC Rushden & Diamonds WWWLLD
Morecambe WWLDLW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

AFC Rushden & Diamonds vs Morecambe head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

AFC Rushden & Diamonds vs Morecambe odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 21.7%, draw 23.4%, away 54.9%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 4.24 3.85 1.64
Bet365 3.75 3.90 1.67
BetVictor 4.33 4.10 1.67
Marathonbet 4.15 3.85 1.62

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 4.20 —
X 3.88 —
2 1.65 —

2 snapshots recorded, from .