Plymouth Parkway
vs
Berkhamsted
Garuda Lions Prediction: Plymouth Parkway
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.89 vs 1.58.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Plymouth Parkway vs Berkhamsted overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Plymouth Parkway vs Berkhamsted
| Probability | Plymouth Parkway | Draw | Berkhamsted |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 44.3% | 24.0% | 31.7% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 44.3% | 24.0% | 31.7% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Plymouth Parkway
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.89 vs 1.58.
Plymouth Parkway vs Berkhamsted match preview
Plymouth Parkway enters this FA Cup match with a 44% probability of winning, while Berkhamsted has a 32% chance. The model predicts a likely scoreline of 2-1 in favor of Plymouth Parkway, with an expected goals tally of 1.89 for them and 1.58 for Berkhamsted. Both teams are showing strong offensive potential, as indicated by a 67% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and a 68% chance that both teams will score.
In terms of recent form, Plymouth Parkway has recorded three wins followed by two losses, while Berkhamsted has a similar trajectory with four wins and one loss in their last six matches. The confidence grade for this matchup is rated as C, suggesting a moderate level of certainty in the forecasted outcomes.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Plymouth Parkway and Berkhamsted expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.47
Plymouth Parkway and Berkhamsted attack and defence ratings
Plymouth Parkway
Berkhamsted
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other 1/128-finals fixtures
- Huddersfield vs Exeter City — team news & stats
- Burton Albion vs AFC Rushden & Diamonds
- Bristol Rovers v Cambridge United — match page
- Altrincham v Notts County — match page
- Peterborough v Reading — match page
- Cray Wanderers vs Stockport County — team news & stats
- Wimborne Town vs Crawley Town — team news & stats
- Oldham vs Sheffield Wednesday
Before and after this match
Plymouth Parkway vs Berkhamsted markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Plymouth Parkway | 44.3% | 2.26 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67.4% | 1.48 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68.4% | 1.46 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 76.0% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 55.7% | 1.80 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Plymouth Parkway | 44.3% |
| Draw | 24.0% | |
| Berkhamsted | 31.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 32.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68.4% |
| No | 31.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 68.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 55.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Plymouth Parkway win | 25.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.3% | |
| Loss | 55.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.2% |
| 2-1 | 8.8% | |
| 1-2 | 7.3% |
Plymouth Parkway vs Berkhamsted stats
Plymouth Parkway and Berkhamsted recent form
| Plymouth Parkway |
WWWWLL |
| Berkhamsted |
WWWWLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.