Stevenage
vs
Mansfield Town
Garuda Lions Prediction: Stevenage
1 – 0 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Stevenage is the favourite, not a value bet.
Stevenage vs Mansfield Town overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Stevenage vs Mansfield Town
| Probability | Stevenage | Draw | Mansfield Town |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 38.6% | 30.2% | 31.2% |
| Market | 38.9% | 29.6% | 31.6% |
| Final | 38.8% | 29.7% | 31.5% |
| Edge | -0.1% | +0.2% | -0.1% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.56, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -0.7% per unit staked (our 38.8% × 2.56 − 1).
Stevenage vs Mansfield Town match preview
Stevenage will face Mansfield Town in a League One clash with both teams showing mixed recent form. Stevenage's last five matches include two wins, while Mansfield Town has secured three victories in their recent outings. The probabilities suggest a 41% chance of a Stevenage win, a 31% chance for Mansfield Town, and a 28% likelihood of a draw. The expected goals indicate Stevenage at 1.47 and Mansfield Town at 1.19, suggesting a potentially tight contest.
Historically, the recent head-to-head encounters favor Mansfield Town, who have one win and two draws against Stevenage in their last three meetings. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0 in favor of Stevenage, with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% probability that both teams will score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Stevenage and Mansfield Town expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.39
Stevenage and Mansfield Town attack and defence ratings
Stevenage
Mansfield Town
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 15 fixtures
Before and after this match
Stevenage vs Mansfield Town markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Stevenage | 38.8% | 2.58 | -0.1% | 2.56 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 57.2% | 1.75 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 50.2% | 1.99 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 70.3% | 1.42 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 61.4% | 1.63 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Stevenage | 38.8% |
| Draw | 29.7% | |
| Mansfield Town | 31.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 42.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 57.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49.8% |
| No | 50.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 68.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 70.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 61.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Stevenage win | 17.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.8% | |
| Loss | 61.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.3% |
| 0-0 | 10.4% | |
| 1-0 | 10.3% |
Stevenage vs Mansfield Town stats
Stevenage and Mansfield Town recent form
| Stevenage |
WDLWLW |
| Mansfield Town |
WDLWWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Stevenage and Mansfield Town season so far
Stevenage record
- They have won 4 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 12 matches.
Mansfield Town record
- They have won 5 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 13 matches.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Stevenage vs Mansfield Town head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-24 | Stevenage | Mansfield Town | League One | 1-1 |
| 2025-09-13 | Mansfield Town | Stevenage | League One | 1-1 |
| 2025-03-08 | Stevenage | Mansfield Town | League One | 1-1 |
| 2024-11-30 | Stevenage | Mansfield Town | England FA Cup | 0-1 |
| 2024-10-19 | Mansfield Town | Stevenage | League One | 0-1 |
| 2023-04-22 | Mansfield Town | Stevenage | League Two | 1-0 |
| 2022-12-10 | Stevenage | Mansfield Town | League Two | 0-0 |
| 2022-04-26 | Mansfield Town | Stevenage | League Two | 2-0 |
| 2021-11-13 | Stevenage | Mansfield Town | League Two | 1-2 |
| 2021-04-17 | Stevenage | Mansfield Town | League Two | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Stevenage vs Mansfield Town odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 39.1%, draw 29.7%, away 31.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.41 | 3.10 | 3.02 |
| Bet365 | 2.30 | 3.30 | 3.00 |
| BetVictor | 2.38 | 3.20 | 2.75 |
| Betano | 2.40 | 3.25 | 2.90 |
| Betfair | 2.30 | 3.30 | 3.00 |
| Dafabet | 2.39 | 3.30 | 3.05 |
| Marathonbet | 2.39 | 3.10 | 3.00 |
| Pinnacle | 2.56 | 2.84 | 3.23 |
| SBO | 2.34 | 2.77 | 2.61 |
| William Hill | 2.40 | 3.10 | 2.80 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
27 snapshots recorded, from .