Bromley
vs
Notts County
Garuda Lions Prediction: Notts County
1 – 2 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.84 vs 1.01.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Bromley vs Notts County overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Bromley vs Notts County
| Probability | Bromley | Draw | Notts County |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 19.3% | 24.8% | 55.9% |
| Market | 31.2% | 27.9% | 40.9% |
| Final | 28.2% | 27.1% | 44.6% |
| Edge | -3.0% | -0.8% | +3.7% |
Why Notts County
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.84 vs 1.01.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Notts County below our published probability: +3.7 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.39, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +6.7% per unit staked (our 44.6% × 2.39 − 1).
Bromley vs Notts County match preview
Bromley faces Notts County in a League One clash, with the probabilities indicating a 27% chance for Bromley to win, a 28% chance for a draw, and a 44% chance for Notts County to secure victory. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-2, occurring with a 10% probability. Both teams show a tendency to score, with a 55% likelihood for both teams to find the net and an over 2.5 goals probability of 54%.
In terms of recent form, Bromley has struggled, recording six matches without a win (L-L-L-D-L-L), while Notts County has seen a mix of results with two wins and two draws in their last six (D-W-D-W-L-L). The expected goals for the match are 1.01 for Bromley and 1.84 for Notts County, reflecting the challenges Bromley faces against a more potent Notts County attack.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Bromley and Notts County expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.85
Bromley and Notts County attack and defence ratings
Bromley
Notts County
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 15 fixtures
Before and after this match
Bromley vs Notts County markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Notts County | 44.6% | 2.24 | +3.7% | 2.39 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.3% | 1.84 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.6% | 1.83 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 72.9% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 44.1% | 2.27 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Bromley | 28.2% |
| Draw | 27.1% | |
| Notts County | 44.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 45.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.6% |
| No | 45.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 55.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 71.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Notts County win | 32.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.0% | |
| Loss | 44.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.8% |
| 1-2 | 9.9% | |
| 0-2 | 9.8% |
Bromley vs Notts County stats
Bromley and Notts County recent form
| Bromley |
LLLDLL |
| Notts County |
DWDWLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Bromley and Notts County season so far
Bromley record
- They have won 2 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game on the road against 0.7 at home.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 13 matches.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Notts County record
- They have won 3 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 12 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Bromley vs Notts County head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-14 | Bromley | Notts County | League Two | 1-1 |
| 2025-08-23 | Notts County | Bromley | League Two | 2-2 |
| 2025-01-25 | Notts County | Bromley | League Two | 1-1 |
| 2024-09-14 | Bromley | Notts County | League Two | 2-4 |
| 2023-03-04 | Bromley | Notts County | National League | 1-1 |
| 2022-11-01 | Notts County | Bromley | National League | 1-1 |
| 2022-01-29 | Bromley | Notts County | National League | 1-0 |
| 2021-10-26 | Notts County | Bromley | National League | 1-1 |
| 2021-05-29 | Bromley | Notts County | National League | 1-0 |
| 2021-05-15 | Notts County | Bromley | National League | 2-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Bromley vs Notts County odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 30.8%, draw 28.6%, away 40.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.14 | 3.14 | 2.31 |
| Bet365 | 3.00 | 3.30 | 2.20 |
| Betano | 3.00 | 3.50 | 2.22 |
| Marathonbet | 2.95 | 3.15 | 2.39 |
| Pinnacle | 3.98 | 2.74 | 2.29 |
| William Hill | 2.90 | 3.30 | 2.25 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
27 snapshots recorded, from .