Chesterfield
vs
Crewe
Garuda Lions Prediction: Crewe
1 – 2 Predicted score · 8% model probability
Chesterfield vs Crewe overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Chesterfield vs Crewe
| Probability | Chesterfield | Draw | Crewe |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 35.2% | 28.5% | 36.2% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 35.2% | 28.5% | 36.2% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Chesterfield vs Crewe match preview
Chesterfield will face Crewe in a League Two matchup with both teams showing contrasting recent form. Chesterfield's last five matches have resulted in two wins, one draw, and two losses, while Crewe remains unbeaten in their last six, with three wins and three draws. The model suggests a close contest, with probabilities of Chesterfield winning at 35%, a draw at 29%, and Crewe slightly favored at 36%.
The expected goals are closely matched, with Chesterfield at 1.32 and Crewe at 1.34. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-2 in favor of Crewe, occurring with an 8% probability. Additionally, there is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% likelihood that both teams will score during the match.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Chesterfield and Crewe expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.66
Chesterfield and Crewe attack and defence ratings
Chesterfield
Crewe
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
Before and after this match
Chesterfield vs Crewe markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Crewe | 36.2% | 2.76 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 50.3% | 1.99 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.3% | 1.81 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 71.5% | 1.40 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 63.8% | 1.57 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Chesterfield | 35.2% |
| Draw | 28.5% | |
| Crewe | 36.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 49.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 50.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.3% |
| No | 44.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 63.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 64.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Crewe win | 17.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.3% | |
| Loss | 63.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.6% |
| 1-2 | 8.3% | |
| 0-0 | 8.2% |
Chesterfield vs Crewe stats
Chesterfield and Crewe recent form
| Chesterfield |
LDWLWW |
| Crewe |
WWWDDD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Chesterfield and Crewe season so far
Chesterfield record
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.4 on the road.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Crewe record
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
Chesterfield vs Crewe head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | Chesterfield | Crewe | League Two | 2-0 |
| 2025-11-22 | Crewe | Chesterfield | League Two | 3-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.