Northampton
vs
Colchester
Garuda Lions Prediction: Draw
0 – 0 Predicted score · 18% model probability
Northampton vs Colchester overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Northampton vs Colchester
| Probability | Northampton | Draw | Colchester |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 34.8% | 35.4% | 29.8% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 34.8% | 35.4% | 29.8% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Northampton vs Colchester match preview
Northampton will host Colchester in a League Two clash on October 24, 2026. According to our model, Northampton holds a 35% probability of winning, while a draw is also at 35%, and Colchester has a 30% chance. The expected goals for Northampton is 0.95, compared to Colchester's 0.86, suggesting a closely contested match. The most likely scoreline predicted is 0-0, with a probability of 18%.
In terms of recent form, Northampton has recorded a win, two draws, and two losses in their last five matches, while Colchester has struggled with five matches without a win, consisting of four draws and one loss. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals is at 27%, and both teams to score is estimated at 37%. The confidence grade for this match is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Northampton and Colchester expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.81
Northampton and Colchester attack and defence ratings
Northampton
Colchester
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
- Bristol Rovers vs Swindon Town — team news & stats
- Cheltenham v Newport County — match page
- Rotherham vs Shrewsbury — team news & stats
- Rochdale vs Accrington ST
- Chesterfield v Crewe — match page
- Gillingham vs Grimsby — team news & stats
- Crawley Town vs Tranmere
- Exeter City v Fleetwood Town — match page
Before and after this match
Northampton vs Colchester markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Draw | 35.4% | 2.82 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 72.8% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 63.3% | 1.58 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 70.2% | 1.42 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 65.2% | 1.53 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Northampton | 34.8% |
| Draw | 35.4% | |
| Colchester | 29.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 27.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 72.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 36.7% |
| No | 63.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 70.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 64.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 65.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Northampton win | 13.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.5% | |
| Loss | 65.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-0 | 17.7% |
| 1-1 | 14.7% | |
| 1-0 | 14.2% |
Northampton vs Colchester stats
Northampton and Colchester recent form
| Northampton |
WDLLWD |
| Colchester |
DLDDDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Northampton and Colchester season so far
Northampton record
- They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.5 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 8 matches.
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Colchester record
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.