Northampton
vs
Tranmere
Garuda Lions Prediction: Northampton
1 – 0 Predicted score · 11% model probability
Northampton vs Tranmere overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Northampton vs Tranmere
| Probability | Northampton | Draw | Tranmere |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 36.0% | 32.0% | 32.0% |
| Market | 42.9% | 28.1% | 29.0% |
| Final | 41.2% | 29.1% | 29.8% |
| Edge | -6.9% | +3.9% | +3.0% |
Why Northampton
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 2.20, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Northampton vs Tranmere match preview
Northampton will face Tranmere in their upcoming League Two match, with the probabilities indicating a 39% chance of a Northampton victory, a 29% likelihood of a draw, and a 32% chance for Tranmere. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0 in favor of Northampton, which has a 10% probability. Expected goals suggest Northampton will generate 0.94, while Tranmere is forecasted to score 1.21.
In terms of recent form, Northampton has recorded two draws and three losses in their last six matches, while Tranmere has experienced one win, two draws, and three losses in the same period. The probabilities for over 2.5 goals stand at 37%, and the chance of both teams scoring is estimated at 44%. The confidence grade for this matchup is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Northampton and Tranmere expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.18
Northampton and Tranmere attack and defence ratings
Northampton
Tranmere
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
Before and after this match
Northampton vs Tranmere markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Northampton | 41.2% | 2.43 | -6.9% | 2.20 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 62.9% | 1.59 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 54.8% | 1.83 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 70.9% | 1.41 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 64.0% | 1.56 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Northampton | 41.2% |
| Draw | 29.1% | |
| Tranmere | 29.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 37.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 62.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 45.2% |
| No | 54.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 70.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 70.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 58.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Northampton win | 15.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.7% | |
| Loss | 64.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.8% |
| 0-0 | 12.7% | |
| 1-0 | 11.5% |
Northampton vs Tranmere stats
Northampton and Tranmere recent form
| Northampton |
WDLLWD |
| Tranmere |
LDLDDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Northampton and Tranmere season so far
Northampton record
- They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.5 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 8 matches.
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Tranmere record
- They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Northampton vs Tranmere head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Northampton vs Tranmere odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 43.1%, draw 27.9%, away 29.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.13 | 3.25 | 3.15 |
| Dafabet | 2.20 | 3.45 | 3.30 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
4 snapshots recorded, from .