Grimsby
vs
Northampton
0 – 2 Full time
| 28′ | Douglas Tharme | ||
| 34′ | M. Warhurst | ||
| 42′ | Charles Vernam | ||
| 49′ | Douglas TharmeJoe Foulkes | ||
| 54′ | josh powell | ||
| 57′ | Joe O'Brien WhitmarshElliott List | ||
| 58′ | Jon Guthrie | ||
| 61′ | Edon Pruti | ||
| 66′ | Charles VernamFinn Cartwright | ||
| 72′ | Jamie Walker | ||
| 74′ | Jon Guthrie | ||
| 75′ | David John Artell | ||
| 78′ | Iwan MorganAndy Cook | ||
| 78′ | Justin Ikechukwu Obiora AmaluzorSonny Finch | ||
| 78′ | Jamie WalkerCian Doyle | ||
| 80′ | M. WarhurstSam Hoskins | ||
| 80′ | josh powellJames Maxwell | ||
| 90′ | Janoi DonacienMax Dyche |
Match stats
| 13 | Shots | 10 |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Shots on target | 6 |
| 52 | Possession % | 48 |
| 3 | Corners | 7 |
| 9 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Offsides | 2 |
| 4 | Saves | 3 |
| 256 | Accurate passes | 227 |
Grimsby vs Northampton overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Grimsby vs Northampton
| Probability | Grimsby | Draw | Northampton |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 55.1% | 28.5% | 16.4% |
| Market | 53.9% | 24.7% | 21.4% |
| Final | 54.2% | 25.6% | 20.2% |
| Edge | +1.3% | +3.8% | -5.1% |
Why Grimsby
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.50 vs 0.70.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Grimsby and Northampton expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.21
Grimsby and Northampton attack and defence ratings
Grimsby
Northampton
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Grimsby vs Northampton: result vs prediction
Grimsby 0 – 2 Northampton
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
Before and after this match
Grimsby vs Northampton markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Grimsby | 54.2% | 1.85 | +1.3% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 62.2% | 1.61 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 59.5% | 1.68 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 79.8% | 1.25 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 44.8% | 2.23 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Grimsby | 54.2% |
| Draw | 25.6% | |
| Northampton | 20.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 37.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 62.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 40.5% |
| No | 59.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 79.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 45.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Grimsby win | 29.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25.8% | |
| Loss | 44.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 15.4% |
| 1-1 | 12.8% | |
| 2-0 | 12.4% |
Grimsby vs Northampton stats
Grimsby and Northampton recent form
| Grimsby |
LLLWWD |
| Northampton |
DLLWDD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Grimsby and Northampton going into this match
Grimsby record
- They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
Northampton record
- They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.5 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 8 matches.
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Grimsby vs Northampton head-to-head
Last 7 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-02-18 | Northampton | Grimsby | League Two | 1-2 |
| 2022-08-06 | Grimsby | Northampton | League Two | 1-1 |
| 2020-02-29 | Grimsby | Northampton | League Two | 0-3 |
| 2019-11-23 | Northampton | Grimsby | League Two | 2-0 |
| 2019-03-16 | Grimsby | Northampton | League Two | 0-0 |
| 2018-11-24 | Northampton | Grimsby | League Two | 2-2 |
| 2013-12-07 | Grimsby | Northampton | FA Cup | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Grimsby vs Northampton odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 54.1%, draw 24.8%, away 21.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.73 | 3.80 | 4.20 |
| Bet365 | 1.67 | 3.75 | 5.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.73 | 3.70 | 4.60 |
| Betano | 1.75 | 3.70 | 4.40 |
| Betfair | 1.73 | 3.80 | 4.60 |
| Dafabet | 1.73 | 3.90 | 4.70 |
| Marathonbet | 1.71 | 3.80 | 4.20 |
| Pinnacle | 1.76 | 3.86 | 4.50 |
| SBO | 1.62 | 3.32 | 3.98 |
| William Hill | 1.75 | 3.60 | 4.20 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
13 snapshots recorded, from .