York
vs
Northampton
Garuda Lions Prediction: York
2 – 0 Predicted score · 14% model probability
York vs Northampton overview
Garuda Lions analysis: York vs Northampton
| Probability | York | Draw | Northampton |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 68.4% | 21.2% | 10.4% |
| Market | 56.8% | 24.5% | 18.7% |
| Final | 59.7% | 23.7% | 16.7% |
| Edge | +11.6% | -3.3% | -8.3% |
Why York
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.05 vs 0.68.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices York below the model: +11.6 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 1.68, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
York vs Northampton match preview
York is favored in their upcoming League Two match against Northampton, with a probability of 68% for a victory. The expected goals for York stand at 2.05, indicating a strong offensive performance, while Northampton is projected to score only 0.68 goals. The most likely scoreline for the match is 2-0, with a 14% probability.
In terms of recent form, York has recorded three wins, one draw, and two losses in their last six matches, while Northampton has struggled, with two draws and four losses in the same period. The probabilities suggest a significant advantage for York, as they also have a 51% chance of the match featuring over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance for both teams to score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
York and Northampton expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.73
York and Northampton attack and defence ratings
York
Northampton
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- Rotherham v Gillingham — match page
- Bristol Rovers vs Barnet — team news & stats
- Fleetwood Town vs Walsall
- Port Vale v Grimsby — match page
- Shrewsbury vs Exeter City — team news & stats
- Crawley Town vs Chesterfield
- Newport County v Colchester — match page
- Cheltenham vs Salford City — team news & stats
Before and after this match
York vs Northampton markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | York | 59.7% | 1.68 | +11.6% | 1.68 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51.5% | 1.94 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 55.9% | 1.79 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 83.3% | 1.20 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | York win | 44.2% | 2.26 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | York | 59.7% |
| Draw | 23.7% | |
| Northampton | 16.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 48.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 44.1% |
| No | 55.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 83.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 40.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | York win | 44.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.2% | |
| Loss | 31.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 13.6% |
| 1-0 | 12.4% | |
| 1-1 | 10.0% |
York vs Northampton stats
York and Northampton recent form
| York |
WLWDLW |
| Northampton |
LLWDDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
York and Northampton season so far
York record
- They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 3.0 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Northampton record
- They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.4 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 7 matches.
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
York vs Northampton head-to-head
Last 8 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-02-23 | York | Northampton | League Two | 1-2 |
| 2016-02-06 | Northampton | York | League Two | 2-0 |
| 2015-02-21 | Northampton | York | League Two | 3-0 |
| 2014-08-16 | York | Northampton | League Two | 1-1 |
| 2014-01-11 | Northampton | York | League Two | 0-2 |
| 2013-08-03 | York | Northampton | League Two | 1-0 |
| 2013-04-13 | Northampton | York | League Two | 0-2 |
| 2012-11-06 | York | Northampton | League Two | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
York vs Northampton odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 56.8%, draw 24.5%, away 18.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.62 | 3.82 | 4.98 |
| Bet365 | 1.67 | 3.75 | 5.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.65 | 3.90 | 5.00 |
| Betano | 1.65 | 3.80 | 5.00 |
| Betfair | 1.65 | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.68 | 3.95 | 4.90 |
| Marathonbet | 1.60 | 3.82 | 5.00 |
| Pinnacle | 1.61 | 3.96 | 5.20 |
| SBO | 1.58 | 3.38 | 4.13 |
| William Hill | 1.65 | 3.70 | 4.80 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .