Northampton
vs
Rotherham
0 – 1 Full time
| 48′ | Josh Austerfield | ||
| 60′ | Dominic IorfaJili Buyabu | ||
| 66′ | Ossama Ashley | ||
| 67′ | Fabio TavaresTom Bradshaw | ||
| 67′ | Ossama Ashleykian spence | ||
| 67′ | Sam ChambersHarvey Saunders | ||
| 72′ | Max Dyche | ||
| 73′ | Paul Mullin | ||
| 79′ | Paul MullinKieran Ngwenya | ||
| 79′ | Aaron NemaneEmmanuel Adegboyega | ||
| 81′ | Owen DaleLogan briggs | ||
| 82′ | Max DycheM. Warhurst | ||
| 85′ | Tyrese Fornah | ||
| 87′ | Tyrese FornahSam Hoskins | ||
| 87′ | Nathaniel OpokuConnor Lemonheigh-Evans |
Match stats
| 17 | Shots | 11 |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Shots on target | 5 |
| 43 | Possession % | 57 |
| 5 | Corners | 7 |
| 14 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Offsides | 1 |
| 4 | Saves | 3 |
| 154 | Accurate passes | 224 |
Northampton vs Rotherham overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Northampton vs Rotherham
| Probability | Northampton | Draw | Rotherham |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 30.5% | 29.4% | 40.1% |
| Market | 37.5% | 28.1% | 34.3% |
| Final | 35.8% | 28.4% | 35.8% |
| Edge | -7.1% | +1.3% | +5.8% |
Why Rotherham
- The market prices Rotherham below the model: +5.8 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Northampton and Rotherham expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.50
Northampton and Rotherham attack and defence ratings
Northampton
Rotherham
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Northampton vs Rotherham: result vs prediction
Northampton 0 – 1 Rotherham
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
Before and after this match
Northampton vs Rotherham markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Rotherham | 35.8% | 2.79 | +5.8% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 54.4% | 1.84 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.8% | 1.93 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 71.6% | 1.40 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 60.0% | 1.67 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Northampton | 35.8% |
| Draw | 28.4% | |
| Rotherham | 35.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 45.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 54.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.8% |
| No | 48.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 64.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 64.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Rotherham win | 19.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.9% | |
| Loss | 60.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.0% |
| 0-1 | 9.8% | |
| 0-0 | 9.5% |
Northampton vs Rotherham stats
Northampton and Rotherham recent form
| Northampton |
LWDDLD |
| Rotherham |
DLDWDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Northampton and Rotherham going into this match
Northampton record
- They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.5 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.
Rotherham record
- They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
Northampton vs Rotherham head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-27 | Rotherham | Northampton | League One | 2-1 |
| 2025-10-11 | Northampton | Rotherham | League One | 1-2 |
| 2025-04-01 | Northampton | Rotherham | League One | 0-2 |
| 2024-12-14 | Rotherham | Northampton | League One | 3-0 |
| 2018-03-17 | Northampton | Rotherham | League One | 0-3 |
| 2017-09-30 | Rotherham | Northampton | League One | 1-0 |
| 2013-02-02 | Rotherham | Northampton | League Two | 3-1 |
| 2012-08-21 | Northampton | Rotherham | League Two | 2-1 |
| 2012-05-05 | Rotherham | Northampton | League Two | 1-1 |
| 2011-10-29 | Northampton | Rotherham | League Two | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Northampton vs Rotherham odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 37.5%, draw 28.1%, away 34.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.46 | 3.30 | 2.65 |
| Bet365 | 2.50 | 3.30 | 2.70 |
| BetVictor | 2.55 | 3.25 | 2.75 |
| Betano | 2.47 | 3.35 | 2.75 |
| Betfair | 2.60 | 3.30 | 2.70 |
| Marathonbet | 2.46 | 3.30 | 2.65 |
| Pinnacle | 2.57 | 3.45 | 2.72 |
| SBO | 2.18 | 2.90 | 2.72 |
| William Hill | 2.45 | 3.20 | 2.70 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
9 snapshots recorded, from .