League Two
·
Full time
·Matchday 7
Gillingham
vs
Bristol Rovers
3 – 0 Full time
| 55′ | James Brophy | ||
| 62′ | Ronan Chapman HaleGarath McCleary | ||
| 64′ | Bobby KamwaFabrizio Cavegn | ||
| 65′ | Ellis Harrison | ||
| 68′ | Kofi Balmer | ||
| 72′ | Shaqai FordeReiss-Alexander Russell-Denny | ||
| 75′ | Lamin SillahW. Goodwin | ||
| 80′ | Ellis HarrisonJoe Quigley | ||
| 83′ | Eli KingMichael Luxton | ||
| 83′ | Harry WaldockS. Kendall | ||
| 85′ | S. Kendall | ||
| 89′ | S. Kendall | ||
| 90′ | Garath McCleary |
Gillingham
27%
Draw
27%
Bristol Rovers
46%
Match stats
| 10 | Shots | 8 |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Shots on target | 2 |
| 54 | Possession % | 46 |
| 2 | Corners | 1 |
| 8 | Fouls | 8 |
| 3 | Offsides | 4 |
| 2 | Saves | 3 |
| 226 | Accurate passes | 177 |
Gillingham vs Bristol Rovers overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Gillingham vs Bristol Rovers
| Probability | Gillingham | Draw | Bristol Rovers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 25.7% | 26.0% | 48.3% |
| Market | 27.4% | 27.2% | 45.4% |
| Final | 27.0% | 26.9% | 46.1% |
| Edge | -1.7% | -1.2% | +2.9% |
Why Bristol Rovers
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.71 vs 1.21.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Bristol Rovers below the model: +2.9 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
94%
2+ goals
80%
3+ goals
56%
No goals
6%
Gillingham and Bristol Rovers expected goals
Gillingham
1.21
Bristol Rovers
1.71
Total expected goals: 2.92
Gillingham and Bristol Rovers attack and defence ratings
Gillingham
Attack
1.00 +0%
Defence
1.10 +10%
Bristol Rovers
Attack
1.32 +32%
Defence
0.86 -14%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Gillingham vs Bristol Rovers: result vs prediction
Gillingham 3 – 0 Bristol Rovers
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
Before and after this match
Gillingham vs Bristol Rovers markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Bristol Rovers | 46.1% | 2.17 | +2.9% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.0% | 1.79 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.6% | 1.71 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.1% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 51.9% | 1.93 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Gillingham | 27.0% |
| Draw | 26.9% | |
| Bristol Rovers | 46.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 44.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.6% |
| No | 41.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 53.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 73.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Bristol Rovers win | 26.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.6% | |
| Loss | 51.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.2% |
| 1-2 | 9.6% | |
| 0-1 | 8.1% |
Gillingham vs Bristol Rovers stats
Gillingham and Bristol Rovers recent form
| Gillingham |
WWDDDL |
| Bristol Rovers |
LWWWWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Gillingham and Bristol Rovers going into this match
Gillingham record
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.
Bristol Rovers record
- They have won 4 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.7 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
Gillingham vs Bristol Rovers head-to-head
Last 9 meetings
5Gillingham wins
2Draws
2Bristol Rovers wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-21 | Gillingham | Bristol Rovers | League Two | 1-2 |
| 2025-11-08 | Bristol Rovers | Gillingham | League Two | 0-1 |
| 2021-02-20 | Gillingham | Bristol Rovers | League One | 2-0 |
| 2020-12-02 | Bristol Rovers | Gillingham | League One | 0-2 |
| 2019-09-17 | Bristol Rovers | Gillingham | League One | 1-1 |
| 2019-03-12 | Gillingham | Bristol Rovers | League One | 0-1 |
| 2018-11-27 | Bristol Rovers | Gillingham | League One | 1-2 |
| 2018-04-28 | Bristol Rovers | Gillingham | League One | 1-1 |
| 2017-12-16 | Gillingham | Bristol Rovers | League One | 4-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Gillingham vs Bristol Rovers odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 27.4%, draw 27.2%, away 45.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.40 | 3.42 | 2.03 |
| Bet365 | 3.50 | 3.30 | 2.05 |
| BetVictor | 3.40 | 3.50 | 2.05 |
| Betano | 3.50 | 3.40 | 2.05 |
| Betfair | 3.50 | 3.60 | 2.05 |
| Marathonbet | 3.38 | 3.42 | 2.01 |
| Pinnacle | 3.47 | 3.57 | 2.08 |
| SBO | 3.25 | 3.04 | 1.88 |
| William Hill | 3.30 | 3.30 | 2.05 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
3.40 ▼ -0.27
X
3.42 ▼ -0.13
2
2.05 ▲ +0.16
9 snapshots recorded, from .