Grimsby
vs
Bristol Rovers
2 – 0 Full time
| 10′ | Ben Purrington | ||
| 22′ | Kieran Green | ||
| 26′ | Riley HarbottleCiaran Kelly | ||
| 38′ | Shaqai Forde | ||
| 40′ | Géza Dávid Turi | ||
| 45′ | Bobby KamwaJack Aitchison | ||
| 45′ | Fabrizio CavegnJoe Quigley | ||
| 45′ | Shaqai FordeEllis Harrison | ||
| 64′ | Kieran Green | ||
| 64′ | Kofi Balmer | ||
| 68′ | Harvey RodgersEdon Pruti | ||
| 71′ | Charles Vernam | ||
| 74′ | Andy CookIwan Morgan | ||
| 74′ | Charles VernamFinn Cartwright | ||
| 75′ | Tommy Leigh | ||
| 78′ | Richard SmallwoodReiss-Alexander Russell-Denny | ||
| 88′ | Sonny FinchRyley Reynolds | ||
| 88′ | Mark SheltonCian Doyle |
Match stats
| 8 | Shots | 3 |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Shots on target | 1 |
| 52 | Possession % | 48 |
| 8 | Corners | 8 |
| 9 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Offsides | 4 |
| 1 | Saves | 1 |
| 155 | Accurate passes | 119 |
Grimsby vs Bristol Rovers overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Grimsby vs Bristol Rovers
| Probability | Grimsby | Draw | Bristol Rovers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 26.2% | 24.5% | 49.2% |
| Market | 39.0% | 26.5% | 34.4% |
| Final | 35.8% | 26.0% | 38.1% |
| Edge | -12.8% | -2.0% | +14.8% |
Why Bristol Rovers
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.88 vs 1.33.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Bristol Rovers below the model: +14.8 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Grimsby and Bristol Rovers expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.21
Grimsby and Bristol Rovers attack and defence ratings
Grimsby
Bristol Rovers
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Grimsby vs Bristol Rovers: result vs prediction
Grimsby 2 – 0 Bristol Rovers
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 6 fixtures
Before and after this match
Grimsby vs Bristol Rovers markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Bristol Rovers | 38.1% | 2.62 | +14.8% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.1% | 1.61 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.3% | 1.58 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.0% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 50.8% | 1.97 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Grimsby | 35.8% |
| Draw | 26.0% | |
| Bristol Rovers | 38.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 37.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.3% |
| No | 36.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 61.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 64.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Bristol Rovers win | 28.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.9% | |
| Loss | 50.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.1% |
| 1-2 | 9.5% | |
| 0-2 | 7.1% |
Grimsby vs Bristol Rovers stats
Grimsby and Bristol Rovers recent form
| Grimsby |
DDDDWL |
| Bristol Rovers |
WWWWLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Grimsby and Bristol Rovers going into this match
Grimsby record
- They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
Bristol Rovers record
- They have won 4 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 5 matches.
Grimsby vs Bristol Rovers head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-21 | Bristol Rovers | Grimsby | League Two | 3-1 |
| 2025-08-30 | Grimsby | Bristol Rovers | League Two | 0-1 |
| 2015-02-14 | Grimsby | Bristol Rovers | National League | 0-1 |
| 2014-08-09 | Bristol Rovers | Grimsby | National League | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Grimsby vs Bristol Rovers odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 39.0%, draw 26.5%, away 34.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.38 | 3.50 | 2.68 |
| Bet365 | 2.40 | 3.40 | 2.75 |
| BetVictor | 2.45 | 3.50 | 2.70 |
| Betano | 2.30 | 3.55 | 2.82 |
| Betfair | 2.30 | 3.70 | 2.80 |
| Marathonbet | 2.38 | 3.50 | 2.68 |
| Pinnacle | 2.45 | 3.65 | 2.74 |
| SBO | 2.20 | 3.15 | 2.65 |
| William Hill | 2.40 | 3.40 | 2.62 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
13 snapshots recorded, from .