League Two
·
Full time
·Matchday 5
Bristol Rovers
vs
Rotherham
1 – 0 Full time
| 32′ | Tommy Leigh | ||
| 45′ | Tommy LeighEllis Harrison | ||
| 51′ | Tom BradshawGeorge Sebine | ||
| 57′ | Jayce Fitzgerald | ||
| 59′ | Fabrizio CavegnJack Aitchison | ||
| 61′ | Jayce FitzgeraldOssama Ashley | ||
| 61′ | brandon coverKieran Ngwenya | ||
| 69′ | Bobby KamwaReiss-Alexander Russell-Denny | ||
| 73′ | Clinton Mola | ||
| 74′ | Josh Austerfield | ||
| 78′ | Emmanuel AdegboyegaPaul Mullin | ||
| 79′ | Jili BuyabuAaron Nemane | ||
| 86′ | Shaqai FordePhilip Sanyaolu | ||
| 90′ | A. Bruce | ||
| 90′ | Kieran Ngwenya | ||
| 90′ | Steve Evans |
Bristol Rovers
60%
Draw
22%
Rotherham
18%
Match stats
| 12 | Shots | 7 |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Shots on target | 2 |
| 44 | Possession % | 56 |
| 10 | Corners | 4 |
| 9 | Fouls | 10 |
| 4 | Offsides | 1 |
| 2 | Saves | 3 |
| 188 | Accurate passes | 261 |
Bristol Rovers vs Rotherham overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Bristol Rovers vs Rotherham
| Probability | Bristol Rovers | Draw | Rotherham |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 77.5% | 14.4% | 8.1% |
| Market | 54.6% | 24.3% | 21.1% |
| Final | 60.3% | 21.9% | 17.8% |
| Edge | +22.9% | -10.0% | -12.9% |
Why Bristol Rovers
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.91 vs 0.90.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Bristol Rovers below the model: +22.9 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
97%
2+ goals
90%
3+ goals
73%
No goals
3%
Bristol Rovers and Rotherham expected goals
Bristol Rovers
2.91
Rotherham
0.90
Total expected goals: 3.81
Bristol Rovers and Rotherham attack and defence ratings
Bristol Rovers
Attack
1.51 +51%
Defence
0.84 -16%
Rotherham
Attack
0.90 -10%
Defence
1.38 +38%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Bristol Rovers vs Rotherham: result vs prediction
Bristol Rovers 1 – 0 Rotherham
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 5 fixtures
Before and after this match
Bristol Rovers vs Rotherham markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Bristol Rovers | 60.3% | 1.66 | +22.9% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 73.2% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.8% | 1.76 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 82.2% | 1.22 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Bristol Rovers win | 58.7% | 1.70 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Bristol Rovers | 60.3% |
| Draw | 21.9% | |
| Rotherham | 17.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 73.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 26.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.8% |
| No | 43.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 82.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 78.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 39.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Bristol Rovers win | 58.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.9% | |
| Loss | 22.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 9.4% |
| 3-0 | 9.1% | |
| 2-1 | 8.5% |
Bristol Rovers vs Rotherham stats
Bristol Rovers and Rotherham recent form
| Bristol Rovers |
WWWLLD |
| Rotherham |
DWDLLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Bristol Rovers and Rotherham going into this match
Bristol Rovers record
- They have won 4 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 5 matches.
Rotherham record
- They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Bristol Rovers vs Rotherham head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
5Bristol Rovers wins
1Draws
4Rotherham wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-01 | Bristol Rovers | Rotherham | League One | 2-3 |
| 2024-08-17 | Rotherham | Bristol Rovers | League One | 0-0 |
| 2020-01-18 | Rotherham | Bristol Rovers | League One | 3-0 |
| 2019-09-28 | Bristol Rovers | Rotherham | League One | 1-0 |
| 2018-04-21 | Rotherham | Bristol Rovers | League One | 2-0 |
| 2017-12-02 | Bristol Rovers | Rotherham | League One | 2-1 |
| 2013-02-19 | Bristol Rovers | Rotherham | League Two | 1-2 |
| 2013-01-26 | Rotherham | Bristol Rovers | League Two | 1-3 |
| 2012-02-25 | Rotherham | Bristol Rovers | League Two | 0-1 |
| 2011-10-14 | Bristol Rovers | Rotherham | League Two | 5-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Bristol Rovers vs Rotherham odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 54.4%, draw 24.0%, away 21.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 1.71 | 3.85 | 4.40 |
| 1xBet | 1.72 | 3.78 | 4.42 |
| Bet365 | 1.70 | 3.90 | 4.33 |
| BetVictor | 1.70 | 3.90 | 4.60 |
| Betano | 1.72 | 3.90 | 4.30 |
| Betfair | 1.75 | 4.00 | 4.33 |
| Dafabet | 1.74 | 4.10 | 4.30 |
| Marathonbet | 1.70 | 3.78 | 4.45 |
| Pinnacle | 1.73 | 3.89 | 4.62 |
| SBO | 1.63 | 3.46 | 3.76 |
| Superbet | 1.73 | 4.00 | 4.15 |
| Unibet | 1.71 | 3.85 | 4.40 |
| William Hill | 1.73 | 3.60 | 4.33 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
1.71 ▲ +0.02
X
3.83 ▲ +0.03
2
4.44 —
11 snapshots recorded, from .