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League Two · Full time ·Matchday 5

Swindon Town vs Colchester

3 – 1 Full time

13′K. Kouassi
45′Ollie ClarkeBen Middlemas
45′Billy KirkmanKaelan Majekodunmi
45′antwoine hackfordLouis Millard
49′Aaron Drinan
54′Dan Butler
57′Jay WilliamsSamuel Kuffour Jr.
59′Anthony Munda
64′Louis MillardJoseph Hungbo
69′Oscar thornBradley ihionvein
70′Moses SesayJaden Williams
70′K. KouassiLeon Chiwome
76′Anthony MundaJames Debayo
77′Aaron Drinan
79′Aaron Drinan
80′Ellis IandoloFrankie Terry

County Ground, Swindon

Swindon Town 36%
Draw 28%
Colchester 36%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

14 Shots 18
6 Shots on target 7
40 Possession % 60
4 Corners 6
8 Fouls 7
2 Offsides 2
5 Saves 3
210 Accurate passes 377

Swindon Town vs Colchester overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Swindon Town vs Colchester

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilitySwindon TownDrawColchester
Model33.1%28.6%38.3%
Market36.8%27.5%35.7%
Final35.9%27.8%36.4%
Edge-3.7%+1.1%+2.6%

Confidence: Low

Why Colchester

  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Colchester below the model: +2.6 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Swindon Town ↓ / Colchester → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 8% 9% 1 8% 14% 9% 2 8% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 92%
2+ goals 75%
3+ goals 49%
No goals 8%

Swindon Town and Colchester expected goals

Swindon Town 1.27
Colchester 1.38

Total expected goals: 2.64

Swindon Town and Colchester attack and defence ratings

Swindon Town

Attack 0.98 -2%
Defence 1.24 +24%

Colchester

Attack 0.93 -7%
Defence 0.93 -7%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Swindon Town vs Colchester: result vs prediction

Swindon Town 3 – 1 Colchester

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 5 fixtures

League Two

Before and after this match

Swindon Town vs Colchester markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Colchester 36.4% 2.75 +2.6% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 50.8% 1.97 — —
Both teams to score Yes 54.9% 1.82 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 72.2% 1.38 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 61.8% 1.62 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Swindon Town35.9%
Draw27.8%
Colchester36.4%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.549.2%
Under 2.550.8%
Both teams to scoreYes54.9%
No45.1%
Double chance1X (home or draw)63.6%
12 (either side)72.2%
X2 (draw or away)64.1%
Handicap -1Colchester win18.3%
Push (exactly one goal)19.9%
Loss61.8%
Correct score (top 3)1-113.6%
0-18.6%
1-28.5%

Swindon Town vs Colchester stats

Swindon Town and Colchester recent form

newest first
Swindon Town WLWDLL
Colchester LWWDLW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Swindon Town and Colchester going into this match

league record before kick-off

Swindon Town record

  • They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.

Colchester record

  • They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.

Swindon Town vs Colchester head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

3Swindon Town wins 3Draws 4Colchester wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-04-10ColchesterSwindon TownLeague Two3-0
2025-10-25Swindon TownColchesterLeague Two0-0
2025-01-01Swindon TownColchesterLeague Two3-2
2024-12-03ColchesterSwindon TownLeague Two4-0
2024-11-02Swindon TownColchesterEngland FA Cup2-1
2024-01-06Swindon TownColchesterLeague Two2-2
2023-11-07ColchesterSwindon TownLeague Two3-1
2023-01-01ColchesterSwindon TownLeague Two1-0
2022-10-15Swindon TownColchesterLeague Two1-0
2022-01-29ColchesterSwindon TownLeague Two1-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Swindon Town vs Colchester odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 36.8%, draw 27.7%, away 35.4%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 2.50 3.35 2.68
1xBet 2.51 3.38 2.60
Bet365 2.55 3.25 2.62
BetVictor 2.55 3.40 2.60
Betano 2.52 3.30 2.70
Betfair 2.45 3.50 2.70
Dafabet 2.60 3.45 2.70
Marathonbet 2.51 3.38 2.60
Pinnacle 2.54 3.60 2.65
SBO 2.50 3.00 2.29
Superbet 2.52 3.35 2.65
Unibet 2.55 3.20 2.48
William Hill 2.45 3.30 2.50

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.52 ▼ -0.35
X 3.38 ▲ +0.18
2 2.60 ▲ +0.25

7 snapshots recorded, from .