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League Two · Full time ·Matchday 5

Northampton vs Newport County

1 – 0 Full time

31′Matthew Max Dibley-Dias
55′C. Lemonheigh-EvansL. Briggs
55′S. ChambersM. Warhurst
60′Matty Warhurst
64′K. EvansT. Nyakuhwa
70′M. JacobJ. Thomas
71′Joe Wormleighton
79′N. OpokuO. Dale
79′H. SaundersS. Hoskins
83′M. Dibley-DiasC. Evans
83′S. GwengweG. Garner
83′Y. BambaM. Adu Poku
86′Cameron Evans
87′J. O'Brien Whitmarsh
90′Logan Briggs

Sixfields Stadium, Northampton

Northampton 46%
Draw 26%
Newport County 28%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

8 Shots 4
4 Shots on target 2
52 Possession % 48
2 Corners 0
15 Fouls 11
1 Offsides 1
2 Saves 3
274 Accurate passes 228

Northampton vs Newport County overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Northampton vs Newport County

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityNorthamptonDrawNewport County
Model22.6%25.3%52.1%
Market53.9%26.4%19.6%
Final46.1%26.2%27.8%
Edge-31.4%-1.1%+32.5%

Confidence: Low

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Northampton ↓ / Newport County → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 6% 9% 9% 1 12% 10% 2 6% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 94%
2+ goals 80%
3+ goals 56%
No goals 6%

Northampton and Newport County expected goals

Northampton 1.13
Newport County 1.80

Total expected goals: 2.92

Northampton and Newport County attack and defence ratings

Northampton

Attack 0.64 -36%
Defence 1.25 +25%

Newport County

Attack 1.21 +21%
Defence 1.27 +27%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Northampton vs Newport County: result vs prediction

Northampton 1 – 0 Newport County

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 5 fixtures

League Two

Before and after this match

Northampton vs Newport County markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Northampton 46.1% 2.17 -31.4% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 55.9% 1.79 — —
Both teams to score Yes 57.4% 1.74 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 73.8% 1.35 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 77.3% 1.29 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Northampton46.1%
Draw26.2%
Newport County27.8%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.555.9%
Under 2.544.1%
Both teams to scoreYes57.4%
No42.6%
Double chance1X (home or draw)72.2%
12 (either side)73.8%
X2 (draw or away)53.9%
Handicap -1Northampton win9.1%
Push (exactly one goal)13.5%
Loss77.3%
Correct score (top 3)1-112.0%
1-29.8%
0-28.7%

Northampton vs Newport County stats

Northampton and Newport County recent form

newest first
Northampton DDLDLL
Newport County LDLWDW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Northampton and Newport County going into this match

league record before kick-off

Northampton record

  • They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.

Newport County record

  • They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
  • 70% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Northampton vs Newport County head-to-head

Last 9 meetings

5Northampton wins 2Draws 2Newport County wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2023-04-07Newport CountyNorthamptonLeague Two3-0
2022-10-29NorthamptonNewport CountyLeague Two1-1
2022-02-08NorthamptonNewport CountyLeague Two1-0
2021-09-14Newport CountyNorthamptonLeague Two0-1
2019-09-14NorthamptonNewport CountyLeague Two2-0
2019-03-12NorthamptonNewport CountyLeague Two1-0
2018-11-27Newport CountyNorthamptonLeague Two3-1
2016-03-25NorthamptonNewport CountyLeague Two1-0
2015-10-31Newport CountyNorthamptonLeague Two2-2

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Northampton vs Newport County odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 53.4%, draw 26.3%, away 20.3%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 1.72 3.55 4.85
1xBet 1.72 3.54 4.78
Bet365 1.75 3.50 4.33
BetVictor 1.73 3.60 4.75
Betano 1.75 3.60 4.60
Betfair 1.75 3.70 4.60
Dafabet 1.77 3.70 4.60
Marathonbet 1.70 3.54 4.80
Pinnacle 1.74 3.70 4.90
SBO 1.77 3.04 3.67
Superbet 1.76 3.65 4.45
Unibet 1.72 3.40 4.35
William Hill 1.75 3.40 4.40

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.73 ▼ -0.02
X 3.54 ▲ +0.14
2 4.77 ▲ +0.44

7 snapshots recorded, from .