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League Two · Full time ·Matchday 4

Northampton vs Crawley Town

1 – 1 Full time

38′N. Opoku
42′Klaudio Krasniqi
55′Lee Evans
60′Jude Arthurs
65′D. MorganD. Pereira
65′O. AderojuD. Orsi-Dadomo
67′D. Pereira
68′J. O'Brien WhitmarshM. Dyche
76′A. OdimayoJ. Russell
81′S. HoskinsC. Lemonheigh-Evans
82′N. OpokuH. Saunders
87′K. KrasniqiN. Tinsdale
87′L. WatsonG. Di Biase

Sixfields Stadium, NorthamptonReferee: A. Dale

Northampton 46%
Draw 27%
Crawley Town 27%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

7 Shots 23
2 Shots on target 5
28 Possession % 72
4 Corners 4
6 Fouls 9
5 Offsides 2
4 Saves 1
142 Accurate passes 500

Northampton vs Crawley Town overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Northampton vs Crawley Town

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityNorthamptonDrawCrawley Town
Model22.0%33.6%44.3%
Market53.6%25.2%21.2%
Final45.7%27.3%27.0%
Edge-31.6%+8.4%+23.1%

Confidence: Low

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Northampton ↓ / Crawley Town → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 17% 16% 10% 1 10% 14% 2 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 83%
2+ goals 57%
3+ goals 29%
No goals 17%

Northampton and Crawley Town expected goals

Northampton 0.73
Crawley Town 1.15

Total expected goals: 1.88

Northampton and Crawley Town attack and defence ratings

Northampton

Attack 0.60 -40%
Defence 1.29 +29%

Crawley Town

Attack 0.74 -26%
Defence 0.88 -12%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Northampton vs Crawley Town: result vs prediction

Northampton 1 – 1 Crawley Town

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 4 fixtures

League Two

Before and after this match

Northampton vs Crawley Town markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Northampton 45.7% 2.19 -31.6% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 71.0% 1.41 — —
Both teams to score No 63.4% 1.58 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 73.0% 1.37 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 78.0% 1.28 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Northampton45.7%
Draw27.3%
Crawley Town27.0%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.529.0%
Under 2.571.0%
Both teams to scoreYes36.6%
No63.4%
Double chance1X (home or draw)73.0%
12 (either side)72.7%
X2 (draw or away)54.3%
Handicap -1Northampton win6.8%
Push (exactly one goal)15.2%
Loss78.0%
Correct score (top 3)0-016.6%
0-116.3%
1-114.1%

Northampton vs Crawley Town stats

Northampton and Crawley Town recent form

newest first
Northampton DLDLLL
Crawley Town LWLLWD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Northampton and Crawley Town going into this match

league record before kick-off

Northampton record

  • They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.

Crawley Town record

  • They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.

Northampton vs Crawley Town head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

4Northampton wins 3Draws 3Crawley Town wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2025-04-26Crawley TownNorthamptonLeague One3-0
2024-10-26NorthamptonCrawley TownLeague One3-0
2023-03-04NorthamptonCrawley TownLeague Two1-0
2022-08-16Crawley TownNorthamptonLeague Two2-3
2022-01-08NorthamptonCrawley TownLeague Two0-1
2021-08-28Crawley TownNorthamptonLeague Two0-0
2019-12-26Crawley TownNorthamptonLeague Two4-0
2019-09-21NorthamptonCrawley TownLeague Two2-2
2019-02-16NorthamptonCrawley TownLeague Two0-0
2018-12-08Crawley TownNorthamptonLeague Two0-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Northampton vs Crawley Town odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 53.6%, draw 25.2%, away 21.2%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 1.74 3.70 4.45
1xBet 1.74 3.74 4.32
Bet365 1.73 3.60 4.50
BetVictor 1.73 3.75 4.50
Betano 1.75 3.65 4.40
Betfair 1.73 3.90 4.50
Dafabet 1.78 3.80 4.50
Marathonbet 1.72 3.74 4.33
Pinnacle 1.75 3.97 4.41
SBO 1.77 3.29 3.88
Superbet 1.76 3.70 4.35
Unibet 1.70 3.60 4.20
William Hill 1.75 3.70 4.00

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.74 ▲ +0.01
X 3.70 ▼ -0.02
2 4.40 ▲ +0.06

5 snapshots recorded, from .