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League Two · Full time ·Matchday 4

Exeter City vs Barnet

1 – 1 Full time

22′Brandon Comley
27′A. OluwaboriE. Sutherland
41′Charlie Lakin
45′Josh Gordon
46′B. ComleyT. Knowles
58′J. Doyle-HayesT. Perry
60′I. Kanu
62′J. ReevesN. Ofoborh
66′M. KenlockW. Wright
67′R. Cole
73′J. GordonS. Cox
73′I. KanuJ. Maskell
73′C. LakinI. Noel-Williams
82′Isiah Noel-Williams
86′Tom Knowles

St James Park, ExeterReferee: S. Gill

Exeter City 25%
Draw 24%
Barnet 51%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

9 Shots 10
5 Shots on target 4
47 Possession % 53
1 Corners 2
13 Fouls 12
4 Offsides 1
3 Saves 4
153 Accurate passes 153

Exeter City vs Barnet overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Exeter City vs Barnet

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityExeter CityDrawBarnet
Model20.6%21.2%58.2%
Market25.9%25.2%48.9%
Final24.6%24.2%51.2%
Edge-5.3%-4.0%+9.3%

Confidence: Low

Why Barnet

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.29 vs 1.33.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Barnet below the model: +9.3 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Exeter City ↓ / Barnet → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 5% 7% 5% 5% 1 9% 9% 7% 7% 2 5% 6% 5% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 97%
2+ goals 88%
3+ goals 70%
No goals 3%

Exeter City and Barnet expected goals

Exeter City 1.33
Barnet 2.29

Total expected goals: 3.62

Exeter City and Barnet attack and defence ratings

Exeter City

Attack 0.87 -13%
Defence 1.12 +12%

Barnet

Attack 1.72 +72%
Defence 1.11 +11%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Exeter City vs Barnet: result vs prediction

Exeter City 1 – 1 Barnet

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 4 fixtures

League Two

Before and after this match

Exeter City vs Barnet markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Barnet 51.2% 1.95 +9.3% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 70.1% 1.43 — —
Both teams to score Yes 67.0% 1.49 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 75.8% 1.32 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 41.8% 2.39 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Exeter City24.6%
Draw24.2%
Barnet51.2%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.570.1%
Under 2.529.9%
Both teams to scoreYes67.0%
No33.0%
Double chance1X (home or draw)48.8%
12 (either side)75.8%
X2 (draw or away)75.4%
Handicap -1Barnet win37.4%
Push (exactly one goal)20.8%
Loss41.8%
Correct score (top 3)1-29.3%
1-19.0%
1-37.1%

Exeter City vs Barnet stats

Exeter City and Barnet recent form

newest first
Exeter City LWLLLD
Barnet DWWLWW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Exeter City and Barnet going into this match

league record before kick-off

Exeter City record

  • They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.

Barnet record

  • They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
  • 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Exeter City vs Barnet head-to-head

Last 9 meetings

6Exeter City wins 2Draws 1Barnet wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2024-11-02Exeter CityBarnetEngland FA Cup5-3
2017-12-30Exeter CityBarnetLeague Two2-1
2017-09-12BarnetExeter CityLeague Two1-2
2017-04-14Exeter CityBarnetLeague Two2-1
2016-10-15BarnetExeter CityLeague Two1-4
2016-03-25Exeter CityBarnetLeague Two1-1
2015-10-31BarnetExeter CityLeague Two2-0
2012-12-29Exeter CityBarnetLeague Two2-2
2012-10-02BarnetExeter CityLeague Two1-2

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Exeter City vs Barnet odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 25.9%, draw 25.2%, away 48.9%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 3.70 3.65 1.90
1xBet 3.56 3.75 1.90
Bet365 3.90 3.60 1.85
BetVictor 3.75 3.70 1.90
Betano 3.60 3.70 1.91
Betfair 3.50 3.75 1.95
Dafabet 3.75 3.75 1.93
Marathonbet 3.58 3.78 1.87
Pinnacle 3.68 3.98 1.90
SBO 3.26 3.28 1.93
Superbet 3.65 3.65 1.92
Unibet 3.25 3.50 1.94
William Hill 3.50 3.70 1.91

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 3.60 ▲ +0.50
X 3.70 ▲ +0.10
2 1.91 ▼ -0.20

5 snapshots recorded, from .