Garuda Lions
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League Two · Full time ·Matchday 4

Swindon Town vs Port Vale

3 – 1 Full time

2′O. Lynch
13′A. Drinan
46′O. HernandezL. Montsma
46′M. CraigB. Garrity
46′B. WaineT. Simpson
56′R. TafazolliB. Middlemas
56′T. NicholsJ. Snowdon
58′Cameron Humphreys
71′B. Middlemas
74′O. PalmerL. Millard
76′R. WaltersG. Hall
81′L. GordonJ. Headley
87′Jack Thomson
90′A. DrinanJ. Ball
90′L. Millard

County Ground, SwindonReferee: M. Corlett

Swindon Town 33%
Draw 28%
Port Vale 39%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

14 Shots 7
6 Shots on target 2
46 Possession % 54
10 Corners 4
10 Fouls 7
3 Offsides 3
1 Saves 2
160 Accurate passes 205

Swindon Town vs Port Vale overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Swindon Town vs Port Vale

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilitySwindon TownDrawPort Vale
Model45.7%31.0%23.3%
Market29.1%26.6%44.3%
Final33.2%27.7%39.1%
Edge+16.6%+4.4%-21.1%

Confidence: Low

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Swindon Town ↓ / Port Vale → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 13% 9% 1 14% 14% 2 10% 8% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 87%
2+ goals 65%
3+ goals 37%
No goals 13%

Swindon Town and Port Vale expected goals

Swindon Town 1.31
Port Vale 0.86

Total expected goals: 2.16

Swindon Town and Port Vale attack and defence ratings

Swindon Town

Attack 0.85 -15%
Defence 1.31 +31%

Port Vale

Attack 0.55 -45%
Defence 1.11 +11%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Swindon Town vs Port Vale: result vs prediction

Swindon Town 3 – 1 Port Vale

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 4 fixtures

League Two

Before and after this match

Swindon Town vs Port Vale markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Port Vale 39.1% 2.56 -21.1% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 63.3% 1.58 — —
Both teams to score No 56.7% 1.76 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 72.3% 1.38 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 76.7% 1.30 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Swindon Town33.2%
Draw27.7%
Port Vale39.1%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.536.7%
Under 2.563.3%
Both teams to scoreYes43.3%
No56.7%
Double chance1X (home or draw)60.9%
12 (either side)72.3%
X2 (draw or away)66.8%
Handicap -1Port Vale win8.0%
Push (exactly one goal)15.2%
Loss76.7%
Correct score (top 3)1-114.2%
1-013.7%
0-012.8%

Swindon Town vs Port Vale stats

Swindon Town and Port Vale recent form

newest first
Swindon Town LWDLLL
Port Vale DDLLLW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Swindon Town and Port Vale going into this match

league record before kick-off

Swindon Town record

  • They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.

Port Vale record

  • They have won 0 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.4 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 5 matches.

Swindon Town vs Port Vale head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

4Swindon Town wins 2Draws 4Port Vale wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2025-02-08Swindon TownPort ValeLeague Two3-3
2024-09-28Port ValeSwindon TownLeague Two2-1
2022-05-19Port ValeSwindon TownLeague Two1-0
2022-05-15Swindon TownPort ValeLeague Two2-1
2022-01-15Port ValeSwindon TownLeague Two1-3
2021-09-11Swindon TownPort ValeLeague Two1-2
2020-01-25Swindon TownPort ValeLeague Two3-0
2019-12-29Port ValeSwindon TownLeague Two2-0
2019-03-16Swindon TownPort ValeLeague Two0-0
2018-11-24Port ValeSwindon TownLeague Two0-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Swindon Town vs Port Vale odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 29.1%, draw 26.6%, away 44.3%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 3.10 3.45 2.18
1xBet 3.26 3.52 2.07
Bet365 3.20 3.60 2.05
BetVictor 3.40 3.50 2.05
Betano 3.25 3.50 2.10
Betfair 3.10 3.50 2.20
Dafabet 3.20 3.55 2.19
Marathonbet 3.25 3.52 2.05
Pinnacle 3.39 3.70 2.07
SBO 2.91 3.02 2.20
Superbet 3.15 3.45 2.17
Unibet 3.00 3.35 2.25
William Hill 3.25 3.30 2.10

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 3.20 ▲ +0.67
X 3.50 ▲ +0.18
2 2.10 ▼ -0.52

5 snapshots recorded, from .