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League Two · Full time ·Matchday 3

Oldham vs Swindon Town

3 – 0 Full time

Boundary Park, OldhamReferee: D. Whitestone

Oldham 50%
Draw 26%
Swindon Town 24%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Oldham vs Swindon Town overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Oldham vs Swindon Town

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityOldhamDrawSwindon Town
Model53.8%24.6%21.6%
Market48.2%27.0%24.8%
Final49.6%26.4%24.0%
Edge+5.6%-2.4%-3.2%

Confidence: Low

Why Oldham

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.88 vs 1.13.
  • Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Oldham below the model: +5.6 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Oldham ↓ / Swindon Town → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 6% 1 8% 12% 6% 2 9% 10% 3 6% 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 94%
2+ goals 81%
3+ goals 58%
No goals 6%

Oldham and Swindon Town expected goals

Oldham 1.88
Swindon Town 1.13

Total expected goals: 3.01

Oldham and Swindon Town attack and defence ratings

Oldham

Attack 1.14 +14%
Defence 1.01 +1%

Swindon Town

Attack 0.93 -7%
Defence 1.20 +20%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Oldham vs Swindon Town: result vs prediction

Oldham 3 – 0 Swindon Town

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 3 fixtures

League Two

Before and after this match

Oldham vs Swindon Town markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Oldham 49.6% 2.02 +5.6% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 57.8% 1.73 — —
Both teams to score Yes 58.4% 1.71 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 76.0% 1.32 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 46.2% 2.17 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Oldham49.6%
Draw26.4%
Swindon Town24.0%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.557.8%
Under 2.542.2%
Both teams to scoreYes58.4%
No41.6%
Double chance1X (home or draw)76.0%
12 (either side)73.6%
X2 (draw or away)50.4%
Handicap -1Oldham win31.6%
Push (exactly one goal)22.2%
Loss46.2%
Correct score (top 3)1-111.5%
2-19.8%
2-08.7%

Oldham vs Swindon Town stats

Oldham and Swindon Town recent form

newest first
Oldham LWLWLL
Swindon Town WDLLLD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Oldham and Swindon Town going into this match

league record before kick-off

Oldham record

  • They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.

Swindon Town record

  • They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.

Oldham vs Swindon Town head-to-head

Last 9 meetings

0Oldham wins 3Draws 6Swindon Town wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-02-07Swindon TownOldhamLeague Two3-0
2025-08-16OldhamSwindon TownLeague Two1-2
2022-03-12Swindon TownOldhamLeague Two1-0
2021-10-30OldhamSwindon TownLeague Two1-3
2019-12-14Swindon TownOldhamLeague Two2-0
2019-04-13OldhamSwindon TownLeague Two2-2
2018-09-29Swindon TownOldhamLeague Two0-0
2017-02-18Swindon TownOldhamLeague One0-0
2016-09-24OldhamSwindon TownLeague One0-2

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Oldham vs Swindon Town odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 48.2%, draw 27.0%, away 24.8%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 1.94 3.45 3.75
1xBet 1.92 3.44 3.82
Bet365 1.95 3.50 3.60
BetVictor 1.93 3.40 3.60
Betano 1.95 3.40 3.75
Betfair 1.91 3.70 3.90
Dafabet 2.06 3.45 3.65
Marathonbet 1.90 3.44 3.82
Pinnacle 1.90 3.52 3.95
SBO 1.99 2.98 3.02
Superbet 2.02 3.40 3.55
Unibet 1.91 3.35 3.50
William Hill 1.91 3.25 3.75

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.93 ▼ -0.22
X 3.44 ▲ +0.19
2 3.75 ▲ +0.50

12 snapshots recorded, from .