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League Two · Full time ·Matchday 3

Colchester vs Rochdale

1 – 0 Full time

Colchester Community Stadium, ColchesterReferee: D. Bourne

Colchester 45%
Draw 27%
Rochdale 29%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Colchester vs Rochdale overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Colchester vs Rochdale

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityColchesterDrawRochdale
Model58.4%22.5%19.1%
Market39.9%28.2%31.9%
Final44.5%26.8%28.7%
Edge+18.5%-5.7%-12.8%

Confidence: Low

Why Colchester

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.10 vs 1.14.
  • Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Colchester below the model: +18.5 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Colchester ↓ / Rochdale → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 7% 10% 5% 2 9% 10% 6% 3 6% 7% 4+ 5% 6%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 95%
2+ goals 84%
3+ goals 63%
No goals 5%

Colchester and Rochdale expected goals

Colchester 2.10
Rochdale 1.14

Total expected goals: 3.24

Colchester and Rochdale attack and defence ratings

Colchester

Attack 1.05 +5%
Defence 0.93 -7%

Rochdale

Attack 1.03 +3%
Defence 1.46 +46%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Colchester vs Rochdale: result vs prediction

Colchester 1 – 0 Rochdale

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 3 fixtures

League Two

Before and after this match

Colchester vs Rochdale markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Colchester 44.5% 2.25 +18.5% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 62.9% 1.59 — —
Both teams to score Yes 60.7% 1.65 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 73.2% 1.37 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 41.6% 2.41 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Colchester44.5%
Draw26.8%
Rochdale28.7%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.562.9%
Under 2.537.1%
Both teams to scoreYes60.7%
No39.3%
Double chance1X (home or draw)71.3%
12 (either side)73.2%
X2 (draw or away)55.5%
Handicap -1Colchester win36.5%
Push (exactly one goal)21.9%
Loss41.6%
Correct score (top 3)1-110.3%
2-19.8%
2-08.6%

Colchester vs Rochdale stats

Colchester and Rochdale recent form

newest first
Colchester WDLWLL
Rochdale LLLDLL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Colchester and Rochdale going into this match

league record before kick-off

Colchester record

  • They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.

Rochdale record

  • They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.

Colchester vs Rochdale head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

1Colchester wins 4Draws 5Rochdale wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2023-01-14RochdaleColchesterLeague Two1-2
2022-09-24ColchesterRochdaleLeague Two0-1
2022-02-01ColchesterRochdaleLeague Two1-1
2021-08-27RochdaleColchesterLeague Two1-1
2016-05-08ColchesterRochdaleLeague One1-2
2015-12-19RochdaleColchesterLeague One3-1
2015-03-07RochdaleColchesterLeague One2-1
2014-12-13ColchesterRochdaleLeague One1-4
2012-02-25ColchesterRochdaleLeague One0-0
2011-10-15RochdaleColchesterLeague One2-2

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Colchester vs Rochdale odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 39.9%, draw 28.2%, away 31.9%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 2.32 3.35 2.95
1xBet 2.32 3.28 2.96
Bet365 2.40 3.30 2.80
BetVictor 2.25 3.25 2.90
Betano 2.37 3.25 2.90
Betfair 2.30 3.50 2.90
Dafabet 2.37 3.35 3.05
Marathonbet 2.30 3.28 2.94
Pinnacle 2.32 3.39 2.97
SBO 2.09 2.97 2.80
Superbet 2.32 3.25 3.00
Unibet 2.25 3.20 2.88
William Hill 2.30 3.20 2.90

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.32 ▲ +0.17
X 3.28 ▼ -0.06
2 2.90 ▼ -0.35

12 snapshots recorded, from .