Rotherham
vs
Chesterfield
2 – 1 Full time
Rotherham vs Chesterfield overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Rotherham vs Chesterfield
| Probability | Rotherham | Draw | Chesterfield |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 18.5% | 31.9% | 49.6% |
| Market | 32.3% | 27.7% | 40.0% |
| Final | 28.9% | 28.7% | 42.4% |
| Edge | -13.8% | +4.2% | +9.6% |
Why Chesterfield
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.27 vs 0.67.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Chesterfield below the model: +9.6 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Rotherham and Chesterfield expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.95
Rotherham and Chesterfield attack and defence ratings
Rotherham
Chesterfield
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Rotherham vs Chesterfield: result vs prediction
Rotherham 2 – 1 Chesterfield
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 3 fixtures
Before and after this match
Rotherham vs Chesterfield markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Chesterfield | 42.4% | 2.36 | +9.6% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 69.2% | 1.45 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 63.5% | 1.57 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 71.3% | 1.40 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 50.4% | 1.98 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Rotherham | 28.9% |
| Draw | 28.7% | |
| Chesterfield | 42.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 30.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 69.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 36.5% |
| No | 63.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 57.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 71.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Chesterfield win | 23.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25.9% | |
| Loss | 50.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-1 | 16.9% |
| 0-0 | 15.5% | |
| 1-1 | 13.5% |
Rotherham vs Chesterfield stats
Rotherham and Chesterfield recent form
| Rotherham |
DLLLDL |
| Chesterfield |
WLLDLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Rotherham and Chesterfield going into this match
Rotherham record
- They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Chesterfield record
- They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
Rotherham vs Chesterfield head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-14 | Chesterfield | Rotherham | EFL Trophy | 0-0 |
| 2017-10-03 | Rotherham | Chesterfield | EFL Trophy | 1-2 |
| 2013-02-16 | Rotherham | Chesterfield | League Two | 1-0 |
| 2012-08-25 | Chesterfield | Rotherham | League Two | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Rotherham vs Chesterfield odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 32.3%, draw 27.7%, away 40.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 2.94 | 3.35 | 2.32 |
| 1xBet | 2.84 | 3.36 | 2.36 |
| Bet365 | 3.00 | 3.30 | 2.30 |
| BetVictor | 2.80 | 3.25 | 2.30 |
| Betano | 2.90 | 3.30 | 2.37 |
| Betfair | 3.00 | 3.50 | 2.30 |
| Dafabet | 2.95 | 3.40 | 2.40 |
| Marathonbet | 2.82 | 3.36 | 2.34 |
| Pinnacle | 2.81 | 3.52 | 2.37 |
| SBO | 2.69 | 2.98 | 2.16 |
| Superbet | 2.87 | 3.35 | 2.37 |
| Unibet | 2.90 | 3.20 | 2.20 |
| William Hill | 2.80 | 3.30 | 2.30 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .