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League Two · Full time ·Matchday 3

Gillingham vs Northampton

1 – 1 Full time

Priestfield Stadium, GillinghamReferee: E. Swallow

Gillingham 37%
Draw 30%
Northampton 34%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Gillingham vs Northampton overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Gillingham vs Northampton

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityGillinghamDrawNorthampton
Model37.7%31.4%31.0%
Market36.6%29.0%34.4%
Final36.8%29.6%33.5%
Edge+1.1%+2.3%-3.4%

Confidence: Low

Why Gillingham

  • Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Gillingham ↓ / Northampton → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 12% 10% 1 11% 15% 2 8% 8% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 88%
2+ goals 67%
3+ goals 39%
No goals 12%

Gillingham and Northampton expected goals

Gillingham 1.19
Northampton 1.05

Total expected goals: 2.24

Gillingham and Northampton attack and defence ratings

Gillingham

Attack 0.64 -36%
Defence 1.54 +54%

Northampton

Attack 0.57 -43%
Defence 1.35 +35%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Gillingham vs Northampton: result vs prediction

Gillingham 1 – 1 Northampton

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 3 fixtures

League Two

Before and after this match

Gillingham vs Northampton markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Gillingham 36.8% 2.71 +1.1% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 61.1% 1.64 — —
Both teams to score No 53.4% 1.87 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 70.4% 1.42 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 62.3% 1.61 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Gillingham36.8%
Draw29.6%
Northampton33.5%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.538.9%
Under 2.561.1%
Both teams to scoreYes46.6%
No53.4%
Double chance1X (home or draw)66.5%
12 (either side)70.4%
X2 (draw or away)63.2%
Handicap -1Gillingham win16.7%
Push (exactly one goal)21.0%
Loss62.3%
Correct score (top 3)1-114.6%
0-011.9%
1-011.3%

Gillingham vs Northampton stats

Gillingham and Northampton recent form

newest first
Gillingham DLLWLL
Northampton LDLLLL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Gillingham and Northampton going into this match

league record before kick-off

Gillingham record

  • They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.

Northampton record

  • They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.

Gillingham vs Northampton head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

4Gillingham wins 2Draws 4Northampton wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2023-04-10NorthamptonGillinghamLeague Two2-1
2022-11-12GillinghamNorthamptonLeague Two0-2
2021-04-24GillinghamNorthamptonLeague One2-2
2020-12-29NorthamptonGillinghamLeague One3-1
2018-02-13NorthamptonGillinghamLeague One1-2
2017-10-21GillinghamNorthamptonLeague One1-2
2017-04-30NorthamptonGillinghamLeague One0-0
2016-11-12GillinghamNorthamptonLeague One2-1
2013-01-29GillinghamNorthamptonLeague Two2-0
2012-10-02NorthamptonGillinghamLeague Two1-2

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Gillingham vs Northampton odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 36.6%, draw 29.0%, away 34.4%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 2.62 3.30 2.62
1xBet 2.54 3.14 2.72
Bet365 2.50 3.30 2.70
BetVictor 2.50 3.20 2.60
Betano 2.55 3.20 2.72
Betfair 2.55 3.50 2.63
Dafabet 2.65 3.30 2.70
Marathonbet 2.54 3.14 2.72
Pinnacle 2.59 3.18 2.79
SBO 2.50 2.92 2.33
Superbet 2.60 3.25 2.67
Unibet 2.50 3.25 2.70
William Hill 2.50 3.10 2.70

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.54 ▼ -0.22
X 3.20 —
2 2.70 ▲ +0.22

12 snapshots recorded, from .