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League Two · Full time ·Matchday 3

Walsall vs Accrington ST

3 – 2 Full time

Bescot Stadium, WalsallReferee: W. Davis

Walsall 51%
Draw 27%
Accrington ST 22%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Walsall vs Accrington ST overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Walsall vs Accrington ST

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityWalsallDrawAccrington ST
Model56.7%26.2%17.1%
Market48.7%27.4%23.9%
Final50.7%27.1%22.2%
Edge+8.0%-1.2%-6.8%

Confidence: Low

Why Walsall

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.70 vs 0.83.
  • Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Walsall below the model: +8.0 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Walsall ↓ / Accrington ST → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 9% 1 12% 12% 2 11% 10% 3 6% 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 91%
2+ goals 73%
3+ goals 46%
No goals 9%

Walsall and Accrington ST expected goals

Walsall 1.70
Accrington ST 0.83

Total expected goals: 2.53

Walsall and Accrington ST attack and defence ratings

Walsall

Attack 0.86 -14%
Defence 0.85 -15%

Accrington ST

Attack 0.82 -18%
Defence 1.43 +43%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Walsall vs Accrington ST: result vs prediction

Walsall 3 – 2 Accrington ST

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 3 fixtures

League Two

Before and after this match

Walsall vs Accrington ST markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Walsall 50.7% 1.97 +8.0% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 53.7% 1.86 — —
Both teams to score No 52.8% 1.89 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 77.8% 1.28 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 43.2% 2.31 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Walsall50.7%
Draw27.1%
Accrington ST22.2%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.546.3%
Under 2.553.7%
Both teams to scoreYes47.2%
No52.8%
Double chance1X (home or draw)77.8%
12 (either side)72.9%
X2 (draw or away)49.3%
Handicap -1Walsall win32.3%
Push (exactly one goal)24.5%
Loss43.2%
Correct score (top 3)1-012.4%
1-112.4%
2-011.5%

Walsall vs Accrington ST stats

Walsall and Accrington ST recent form

newest first
Walsall DDWWLL
Accrington ST LDLLDD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Walsall and Accrington ST going into this match

league record before kick-off

Walsall record

  • They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 5 matches.
  • 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Accrington ST record

  • They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
  • 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Walsall vs Accrington ST head-to-head

Last 8 meetings

2Walsall wins 2Draws 4Accrington ST wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-01-24WalsallAccrington STLeague Two0-0
2025-09-27Accrington STWalsallLeague Two1-3
2025-04-26WalsallAccrington STLeague Two0-1
2024-10-26Accrington STWalsallLeague Two0-0
2024-02-27WalsallAccrington STLeague Two2-1
2023-12-23Accrington STWalsallLeague Two2-1
2019-04-13Accrington STWalsallLeague One2-1
2018-09-29WalsallAccrington STLeague One0-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Walsall vs Accrington ST odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 48.7%, draw 27.4%, away 23.9%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 1.90 3.40 3.95
1xBet 1.92 3.42 3.84
Bet365 1.91 3.40 3.90
BetVictor 1.87 3.30 3.90
Betano 1.93 3.40 3.85
Betfair 1.91 3.50 3.90
Dafabet 1.99 3.45 3.90
Marathonbet 1.86 3.44 3.98
Pinnacle 1.87 3.52 4.07
SBO 1.92 2.95 3.23
Superbet 1.97 3.35 3.80
Unibet 1.90 3.45 3.90
William Hill 1.91 3.25 3.80

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.91 ▼ -0.03
X 3.40 ▲ +0.02
2 3.90 ▲ +0.06

12 snapshots recorded, from .