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League Two · Full time ·Matchday 4

Accrington ST vs Grimsby

2 – 2 Full time

6′J. Anderson
38′A. Cook
45′J. Woods
46′S. MolsA. Henderson
46′C. PymS. Auton
57′D. TutondaS. Whalley
58′C. CatonC. Warren
60′T. Walton
65′R. ReynoldsC. Doyle
65′I. MorganC. Vernam
70′Shaun Whalley
76′Cameron McJannett
77′T. WaltonC. Stockton
77′K. GreenJ. Walker
86′Accrington STC. Grant
89′Josh Woods
90′Joseph Anderson
90′Devon Matthews

The Crown Ground, AccringtonReferee: M. Barlow

Accrington ST 25%
Draw 25%
Grimsby 50%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

12 Shots 19
5 Shots on target 7
45 Possession % 55
2 Corners 8
9 Fouls 10
4 Offsides 1
6 Saves 3
188 Accurate passes 249

Accrington ST vs Grimsby overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Accrington ST vs Grimsby

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityAccrington STDrawGrimsby
Model19.0%21.4%59.6%
Market26.6%26.7%46.7%
Final24.7%25.4%50.0%
Edge-7.5%-5.3%+12.9%

Confidence: Low

Why Grimsby

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.25 vs 1.23.
  • Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Grimsby below the model: +12.9 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Accrington ST ↓ / Grimsby → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 6% 8% 6% 6% 1 9% 10% 7% 7% 2 5% 6% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 96%
2+ goals 87%
3+ goals 67%
No goals 4%

Accrington ST and Grimsby expected goals

Accrington ST 1.23
Grimsby 2.25

Total expected goals: 3.48

Accrington ST and Grimsby attack and defence ratings

Accrington ST

Attack 0.90 -10%
Defence 1.51 +51%

Grimsby

Attack 1.25 +25%
Defence 0.99 -1%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Accrington ST vs Grimsby: result vs prediction

Accrington ST 2 – 2 Grimsby

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 4 fixtures

League Two

Before and after this match

Accrington ST vs Grimsby markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Grimsby 50.0% 2.00 +12.9% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 67.5% 1.48 — —
Both teams to score Yes 64.1% 1.56 — —
Double chance X2 (draw or away) 75.3% 1.33 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 40.4% 2.47 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Accrington ST24.7%
Draw25.4%
Grimsby50.0%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.567.5%
Under 2.532.5%
Both teams to scoreYes64.1%
No35.9%
Double chance1X (home or draw)50.0%
12 (either side)74.6%
X2 (draw or away)75.3%
Handicap -1Grimsby win38.3%
Push (exactly one goal)21.3%
Loss40.4%
Correct score (top 3)1-29.6%
1-19.4%
0-27.8%

Accrington ST vs Grimsby stats

Accrington ST and Grimsby recent form

newest first
Accrington ST LLDLLD
Grimsby DDWLDL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Accrington ST and Grimsby going into this match

league record before kick-off

Accrington ST record

  • They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
  • 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Grimsby record

  • They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.

Accrington ST vs Grimsby head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

4Accrington ST wins 3Draws 3Grimsby wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-02-11GrimsbyAccrington STLeague Two1-0
2025-08-23Accrington STGrimsbyLeague Two1-1
2025-01-01Accrington STGrimsbyLeague Two3-2
2024-12-03GrimsbyAccrington STLeague Two5-2
2024-02-03Accrington STGrimsbyLeague Two0-0
2023-10-14GrimsbyAccrington STLeague Two0-2
2022-11-22GrimsbyAccrington STEFL Trophy0-1
2017-12-30GrimsbyAccrington STLeague Two0-3
2017-09-12Accrington STGrimsbyLeague Two1-2
2017-03-25Accrington STGrimsbyLeague Two1-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Accrington ST vs Grimsby odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 26.6%, draw 26.7%, away 46.7%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 3.55 3.50 1.99
1xBet 3.52 3.54 1.97
Bet365 3.70 3.60 1.95
BetVictor 3.70 3.50 1.95
Betano 3.45 3.55 2.00
Betfair 3.50 3.60 2.05
Dafabet 3.60 3.50 2.05
Marathonbet 3.52 3.54 1.95
Pinnacle 3.60 3.75 1.98
SBO 3.23 3.13 2.00
Superbet 3.50 3.45 2.02
Unibet 3.45 3.40 2.04
William Hill 3.40 3.50 2.00

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 3.52 ▲ +0.03
X 3.50 ▲ +0.04
2 2.00 —

5 snapshots recorded, from .