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League Two · Full time ·Matchday 5

Accrington ST vs Crawley Town

3 – 2 Full time

4′Charlie Caton
20′Danilo Orsi
25′Donald LoveAidan borland
30′Devon matthews
42′Farrend Rawson
45′Priestley Farquharson
53′Shaun Whalley
55′Charlie Caton
58′Akinwale Joseph OdimayoDylan Morgan
58′Malcolm EbioweiDion Pereira
59′Louie WatsonKellan Gordon
61′Klaudio Krasniqi
63′Devon matthews
66′Danilo OrsiPemi Aderoju
72′Klaudio KrasniqiGianmarco biase di
73′David Tutonda
74′Shaun WhalleyConor Grant
79′Pemi Aderoju
82′Charlie CatonCole Stockton
83′Tyler WaltonAlex Henderson

The Crown Ground, Accrington

Accrington ST 43%
Draw 27%
Crawley Town 30%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

11 Shots 14
4 Shots on target 5
37 Possession % 63
1 Corners 4
21 Fouls 8
2 Offsides 0
3 Saves 1
159 Accurate passes 373

Accrington ST vs Crawley Town overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Accrington ST vs Crawley Town

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityAccrington STDrawCrawley Town
Model31.3%28.7%40.0%
Market46.3%26.5%27.2%
Final42.5%27.1%30.4%
Edge-15.0%+2.2%+12.9%

Confidence: Low

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Accrington ST ↓ / Crawley Town → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 9% 9% 7% 1 8% 14% 9% 2 8% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 91%
2+ goals 75%
3+ goals 48%
No goals 9%

Accrington ST and Crawley Town expected goals

Accrington ST 1.21
Crawley Town 1.39

Total expected goals: 2.61

Accrington ST and Crawley Town attack and defence ratings

Accrington ST

Attack 0.98 -2%
Defence 1.53 +53%

Crawley Town

Attack 0.77 -23%
Defence 0.89 -11%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Accrington ST vs Crawley Town: result vs prediction

Accrington ST 3 – 2 Crawley Town

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 5 fixtures

League Two

Before and after this match

Accrington ST vs Crawley Town markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Accrington ST 42.5% 2.35 -15.0% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 51.7% 1.93 — —
Both teams to score Yes 54.0% 1.85 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 72.9% 1.37 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 68.6% 1.46 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Accrington ST42.5%
Draw27.1%
Crawley Town30.4%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.548.3%
Under 2.551.7%
Both teams to scoreYes54.0%
No46.0%
Double chance1X (home or draw)69.6%
12 (either side)72.9%
X2 (draw or away)57.5%
Handicap -1Accrington ST win13.7%
Push (exactly one goal)17.7%
Loss68.6%
Correct score (top 3)1-113.7%
0-19.1%
1-28.7%

Accrington ST vs Crawley Town stats

Accrington ST and Crawley Town recent form

newest first
Accrington ST DLLDLL
Crawley Town DLWLLW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Accrington ST and Crawley Town going into this match

league record before kick-off

Accrington ST record

  • They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
  • 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Crawley Town record

  • They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.

Accrington ST vs Crawley Town head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

3Accrington ST wins 3Draws 4Crawley Town wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-04-25Accrington STCrawley TownLeague Two3-3
2025-11-22Crawley TownAccrington STLeague Two1-1
2024-02-24Accrington STCrawley TownLeague Two0-1
2023-11-11Crawley TownAccrington STLeague Two3-1
2022-11-05Crawley TownAccrington STFA Cup1-4
2018-01-27Crawley TownAccrington STLeague Two2-1
2017-12-23Accrington STCrawley TownLeague Two2-3
2017-04-17Accrington STCrawley TownLeague Two1-0
2016-10-22Crawley TownAccrington STLeague Two0-0
2016-02-13Accrington STCrawley TownLeague Two4-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Accrington ST vs Crawley Town odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 46.1%, draw 26.6%, away 27.2%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 2.00 3.55 3.45
1xBet 2.02 3.48 3.43
Bet365 1.95 3.50 3.40
BetVictor 2.00 3.70 3.40
Betano 2.02 3.45 3.50
Betfair 2.05 3.70 3.40
Dafabet 2.05 3.60 3.55
Marathonbet 2.00 3.48 3.42
Pinnacle 2.04 3.69 3.47
SBO 1.98 3.04 2.99
Superbet 2.02 3.50 3.45
Unibet 2.06 3.45 3.40
William Hill 2.00 3.30 3.30

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.00 ▼ -0.10
X 3.49 ▲ +0.14
2 3.41 ▲ +0.11

11 snapshots recorded, from .