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League Two · Full time ·Matchday 6

Barnet vs Accrington ST

2 – 1 Full time

6′Tyler Walton
16′Josh Woods
27′Charlie Caton
29′Joseph Anderson
45′Charlie CatonAlex Henderson
45′Nnamdi OfoborhDamola Ajayi
55′Devon matthews
57′Charlie Lakin
63′Tom KnowlesRomoney Crichlow-Noble
63′Oisin GallagherJake Reeves
64′Tyler WaltonCharlie Warren
64′Shaun WhalleyJoel Catesby
72′Charlie Lakin
74′Devon matthews
76′Aidan borlandSeamus Conneely
76′Josh WoodsCole Stockton
81′Connor O'Brien
88′Idris KanuIsiah Noel Williams
88′Kabongo TshimangaJ Maskell

The Hive Stadium, London

Barnet 66%
Draw 19%
Accrington ST 14%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

15 Shots 8
5 Shots on target 2
61 Possession % 39
6 Corners 4
9 Fouls 19
2 Offsides 2
1 Saves 3
278 Accurate passes 135

Barnet vs Accrington ST overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Barnet vs Accrington ST

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityBarnetDrawAccrington ST
Model73.9%13.5%12.6%
Market64.0%21.1%15.0%
Final66.4%19.2%14.4%
Edge+9.9%-7.6%-2.3%

Confidence: Low

Why Barnet

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.52 vs 1.56.
  • Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Barnet below the model: +9.9 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Barnet ↓ / Accrington ST → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 2 3 4+ 10% 15% 12%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 99%
2+ goals 97%
3+ goals 88%
No goals 1%

Barnet and Accrington ST expected goals

Barnet 3.52
Accrington ST 1.56

Total expected goals: 5.09

Barnet and Accrington ST attack and defence ratings

Barnet

Attack 1.70 +70%
Defence 1.17 +17%

Accrington ST

Attack 1.12 +12%
Defence 1.49 +49%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Barnet vs Accrington ST: result vs prediction

Barnet 2 – 1 Accrington ST

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 6 fixtures

League Two

Before and after this match

Barnet vs Accrington ST markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Barnet 66.4% 1.51 +9.9% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 88.2% 1.13 — —
Both teams to score Yes 77.0% 1.30 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 85.6% 1.17 — —
Handicap -1 Barnet win 57.1% 1.75 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Barnet66.4%
Draw19.2%
Accrington ST14.4%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.588.2%
Under 2.511.8%
Both teams to scoreYes77.0%
No23.0%
Double chance1X (home or draw)85.6%
12 (either side)80.8%
X2 (draw or away)33.6%
Handicap -1Barnet win57.1%
Push (exactly one goal)16.7%
Loss26.2%
Correct score (top 3)3-17.0%
4-16.2%
2-16.0%

Barnet vs Accrington ST stats

Barnet and Accrington ST recent form

newest first
Barnet DDDWWL
Accrington ST WDLLDL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Barnet and Accrington ST going into this match

league record before kick-off

Barnet record

  • They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
  • 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Accrington ST record

  • They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
  • 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Barnet vs Accrington ST head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

3Barnet wins 2Draws 5Accrington ST wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-02-24Accrington STBarnetLeague Two0-1
2025-10-04BarnetAccrington STLeague Two2-0
2022-11-26Accrington STBarnetFA Cup1-0
2018-02-17BarnetAccrington STLeague Two1-1
2017-10-28Accrington STBarnetLeague Two4-1
2017-03-04Accrington STBarnetLeague Two1-0
2016-08-13BarnetAccrington STLeague Two2-0
2016-02-27Accrington STBarnetLeague Two2-2
2015-10-10BarnetAccrington STLeague Two1-2
2013-03-16Accrington STBarnetLeague Two3-2

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Barnet vs Accrington ST odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 64.0%, draw 21.1%, away 15.0%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.46 4.40 6.19
Bet365 1.48 4.20 6.50
BetVictor 1.45 4.60 6.50
Betano 1.47 4.30 6.20
Betfair 1.44 4.60 6.50
Marathonbet 1.45 4.40 6.15
Pinnacle 1.47 4.63 6.51
SBO 1.45 3.89 4.94
William Hill 1.44 4.20 6.00

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.45 ▼ -0.12
X 4.40 ▲ +0.28
2 6.20 ▲ +1.17

13 snapshots recorded, from .