League Two
·
Full time
·Matchday 5
Rochdale
vs
Gillingham
1 – 4 Full time
| 9′ | Conor McManus | ||
| 18′ | W. GoodwinLamin Sillah | ||
| 18′ | Zech ObieroEli King | ||
| 33′ | James Brophy | ||
| 45′ | Conor McManusRobbie McKenzie | ||
| 51′ | Edward Francis | ||
| 53′ | Omar Beckles | ||
| 56′ | Lamin Sillah | ||
| 60′ | Edward Francis | ||
| 64′ | Logan DobbsJack Daley | ||
| 66′ | Zain Silcott-DuberryHarvey Gilmour | ||
| 68′ | James Brophy | ||
| 73′ | Harry WaldockS. Kendall | ||
| 81′ | Luke HannantJonny Smith | ||
| 81′ | Dajaune BrownGlenn Middleton | ||
| 87′ | Charlie Tasker | ||
| 88′ | Emmanuel DieseruvweIan Henderson |
Rochdale
48%
Draw
27%
Gillingham
25%
Match stats
| 7 | Shots | 16 |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Shots on target | 6 |
| 54 | Possession % | 46 |
| 6 | Corners | 6 |
| 13 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Offsides | 6 |
| 2 | Saves | 2 |
| 356 | Accurate passes | 268 |
Rochdale vs Gillingham overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Rochdale vs Gillingham
| Probability | Rochdale | Draw | Gillingham |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 57.2% | 24.2% | 18.6% |
| Market | 44.6% | 27.8% | 27.6% |
| Final | 47.7% | 26.9% | 25.4% |
| Edge | +12.7% | -3.6% | -9.1% |
Why Rochdale
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.91 vs 1.01.
- The market prices Rochdale below the model: +12.7 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
94%
2+ goals
80%
3+ goals
56%
No goals
6%
Rochdale and Gillingham expected goals
Rochdale
1.91
Gillingham
1.01
Total expected goals: 2.91
Rochdale and Gillingham attack and defence ratings
Rochdale
Attack
1.06 +6%
Defence
1.22 +22%
Gillingham
Attack
0.69 -31%
Defence
1.29 +29%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Rochdale vs Gillingham: result vs prediction
Rochdale 1 – 4 Gillingham
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 5 fixtures
- Fleetwood Town vs Shrewsbury — team news & stats
- Salford City vs Port Vale
- Bristol Rovers v Rotherham — match page
- Northampton vs Newport County — team news & stats
- Chesterfield v Barnet — match page
- Swindon Town vs Colchester — team news & stats
- Accrington ST vs Crawley Town
- Crewe v York — match page
Before and after this match
Rochdale vs Gillingham markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Rochdale | 47.7% | 2.09 | +12.7% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.6% | 1.80 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.0% | 1.82 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 74.6% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 42.6% | 2.35 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Rochdale | 47.7% |
| Draw | 26.9% | |
| Gillingham | 25.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 44.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.0% |
| No | 45.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 74.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 52.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Rochdale win | 34.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.0% | |
| Loss | 42.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.5% |
| 2-1 | 9.9% | |
| 2-0 | 9.9% |
Rochdale vs Gillingham stats
Rochdale and Gillingham recent form
| Rochdale |
WLLLLD |
| Gillingham |
DDDLLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Rochdale and Gillingham going into this match
Rochdale record
- They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
Gillingham record
- They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
Rochdale vs Gillingham head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
2Rochdale wins
3Draws
5Gillingham wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-02-18 | Rochdale | Gillingham | League Two | 0-2 |
| 2022-08-06 | Gillingham | Rochdale | League Two | 1-0 |
| 2021-01-23 | Gillingham | Rochdale | League One | 2-2 |
| 2020-12-19 | Rochdale | Gillingham | League One | 1-4 |
| 2020-01-25 | Rochdale | Gillingham | League One | 2-2 |
| 2019-12-29 | Gillingham | Rochdale | League One | 1-0 |
| 2019-03-30 | Gillingham | Rochdale | League One | 1-1 |
| 2018-09-15 | Rochdale | Gillingham | League One | 3-0 |
| 2018-01-13 | Gillingham | Rochdale | League One | 2-1 |
| 2017-09-23 | Rochdale | Gillingham | League One | 3-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Rochdale vs Gillingham odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 44.6%, draw 27.9%, away 27.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 2.08 | 3.35 | 3.40 |
| 1xBet | 2.09 | 3.36 | 3.36 |
| Bet365 | 2.10 | 3.25 | 3.40 |
| BetVictor | 2.10 | 3.40 | 3.40 |
| Betano | 2.10 | 3.35 | 3.40 |
| Betfair | 2.10 | 3.50 | 3.50 |
| Dafabet | 2.11 | 3.45 | 3.50 |
| Marathonbet | 2.07 | 3.36 | 3.35 |
| Pinnacle | 2.12 | 3.50 | 3.43 |
| SBO | 1.94 | 3.02 | 3.09 |
| Superbet | 2.10 | 3.35 | 3.40 |
| Unibet | 2.00 | 3.25 | 3.35 |
| William Hill | 2.05 | 3.25 | 3.30 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
2.09 ▼ -0.01
X
3.36 ▲ +0.11
2
3.38 ▲ +0.13
7 snapshots recorded, from .