Barnet
vs
Cheltenham
2 – 2 Full time
Barnet vs Cheltenham overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Barnet vs Cheltenham
| Probability | Barnet | Draw | Cheltenham |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 77.7% | 12.7% | 9.6% |
| Market | 57.3% | 25.1% | 17.7% |
| Final | 62.4% | 22.0% | 15.6% |
| Edge | +20.4% | -12.3% | -8.1% |
Why Barnet
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.43 vs 1.26.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Barnet below the model: +20.4 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Barnet and Cheltenham expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.69
Barnet and Cheltenham attack and defence ratings
Barnet
Cheltenham
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Barnet vs Cheltenham: result vs prediction
Barnet 2 – 2 Cheltenham
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 3 fixtures
Before and after this match
Barnet vs Cheltenham markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Barnet | 62.4% | 1.60 | +20.4% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 84.7% | 1.18 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69.8% | 1.43 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 84.4% | 1.19 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Barnet win | 61.0% | 1.64 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Barnet | 62.4% |
| Draw | 22.0% | |
| Cheltenham | 15.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 84.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 15.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69.8% |
| No | 30.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 84.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 78.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 37.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Barnet win | 61.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 16.7% | |
| Loss | 22.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 3-1 | 7.8% |
| 2-1 | 6.8% | |
| 4-1 | 6.7% |
Barnet vs Cheltenham stats
Barnet and Cheltenham recent form
| Barnet |
WWLWWW |
| Cheltenham |
LWLLLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Barnet and Cheltenham going into this match
Barnet record
- They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Cheltenham record
- They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
Barnet vs Cheltenham head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-14 | Barnet | Cheltenham | League Two | 0-0 |
| 2025-08-23 | Cheltenham | Barnet | League Two | 0-1 |
| 2018-01-27 | Cheltenham | Barnet | League Two | 1-1 |
| 2017-12-23 | Barnet | Cheltenham | League Two | 0-2 |
| 2017-03-25 | Barnet | Cheltenham | League Two | 3-1 |
| 2016-12-26 | Cheltenham | Barnet | League Two | 1-2 |
| 2013-03-23 | Barnet | Cheltenham | League Two | 0-0 |
| 2012-11-24 | Cheltenham | Barnet | League Two | 1-0 |
| 2012-04-06 | Cheltenham | Barnet | League Two | 2-0 |
| 2011-12-16 | Barnet | Cheltenham | League Two | 2-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Barnet vs Cheltenham odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 57.3%, draw 25.1%, away 17.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 1.63 | 3.80 | 5.20 |
| 1xBet | 1.63 | 3.54 | 5.64 |
| Bet365 | 1.62 | 3.80 | 5.25 |
| BetVictor | 1.62 | 3.90 | 5.25 |
| Betano | 1.62 | 3.65 | 5.50 |
| Betfair | 1.55 | 4.10 | 5.50 |
| Dafabet | 1.62 | 4.00 | 5.60 |
| Marathonbet | 1.61 | 3.54 | 5.70 |
| Pinnacle | 1.60 | 3.51 | 6.34 |
| SBO | 1.54 | 3.40 | 4.51 |
| Superbet | 1.60 | 3.90 | 5.25 |
| Unibet | 1.58 | 3.70 | 5.00 |
| William Hill | 1.62 | 3.60 | 5.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .