League Two
·
Full time
·Matchday 2
Swindon Town
vs
Cheltenham
2 – 1 Full time
Swindon Town
40%
Draw
25%
Cheltenham
35%
Swindon Town vs Cheltenham overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Swindon Town vs Cheltenham
| Probability | Swindon Town | Draw | Cheltenham |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 40.2% | 25.1% | 34.7% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 40.2% | 25.1% | 34.7% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
95%
2+ goals
85%
3+ goals
64%
No goals
5%
Swindon Town and Cheltenham expected goals
Swindon Town
1.71
Cheltenham
1.58
Total expected goals: 3.28
Swindon Town and Cheltenham attack and defence ratings
Swindon Town
Attack
0.86 -14%
Defence
1.25 +25%
Cheltenham
Attack
1.05 +5%
Defence
1.44 +44%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Swindon Town vs Cheltenham: result vs prediction
Swindon Town 2 – 1 Cheltenham
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 2 fixtures
Before and after this match
Swindon Town vs Cheltenham markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Swindon Town | 40.2% | 2.49 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63.7% | 1.57 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66.0% | 1.52 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.9% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 59.8% | 1.67 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Swindon Town | 40.2% |
| Draw | 25.1% | |
| Cheltenham | 34.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 36.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66.0% |
| No | 34.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 65.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 59.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Swindon Town win | 21.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.9% | |
| Loss | 59.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.1% |
| 2-1 | 8.6% | |
| 1-2 | 8.0% |
Swindon Town vs Cheltenham stats
Swindon Town and Cheltenham recent form
| Swindon Town |
DLLLDL |
| Cheltenham |
WLLLLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Swindon Town and Cheltenham going into this match
Swindon Town record
- They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
Cheltenham record
- They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
Swindon Town vs Cheltenham head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
1Swindon Town wins
0Draws
1Cheltenham wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-29 | Cheltenham | Swindon Town | League Two | 0-2 |
| 2025-12-09 | Swindon Town | Cheltenham | League Two | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.