League Two
·
Full time
·Matchday 2
Bristol Rovers
vs
Newport County
5 – 3 Full time
Bristol Rovers
48%
Draw
27%
Newport County
25%
Bristol Rovers vs Newport County overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Bristol Rovers vs Newport County
| Probability | Bristol Rovers | Draw | Newport County |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 47.8% | 26.7% | 25.4% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 47.8% | 26.7% | 25.4% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Bristol Rovers
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.65 vs 1.15.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
93%
2+ goals
78%
3+ goals
53%
No goals
7%
Bristol Rovers and Newport County expected goals
Bristol Rovers
1.65
Newport County
1.15
Total expected goals: 2.79
Bristol Rovers and Newport County attack and defence ratings
Bristol Rovers
Attack
1.29 +29%
Defence
0.85 -15%
Newport County
Attack
1.12 +12%
Defence
0.93 -7%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Bristol Rovers vs Newport County: result vs prediction
Bristol Rovers 5 – 3 Newport County
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 2 fixtures
Before and after this match
Bristol Rovers vs Newport County markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Bristol Rovers | 47.8% | 2.09 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52.9% | 1.89 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.3% | 1.78 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 74.6% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 52.2% | 1.92 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Bristol Rovers | 47.8% |
| Draw | 26.7% | |
| Newport County | 25.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 47.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.3% |
| No | 43.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 74.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 52.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Bristol Rovers win | 25.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.9% | |
| Loss | 52.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.7% |
| 2-1 | 9.5% | |
| 1-0 | 8.9% |
Bristol Rovers vs Newport County stats
Bristol Rovers and Newport County recent form
| Bristol Rovers |
LLDWWW |
| Newport County |
WDWWLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Bristol Rovers and Newport County going into this match
Bristol Rovers record
- They have won 4 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 5 matches.
Newport County record
- They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- 70% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Bristol Rovers vs Newport County head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
2Bristol Rovers wins
0Draws
0Newport County wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-31 | Bristol Rovers | Newport County | League Two | 3-0 |
| 2025-09-06 | Newport County | Bristol Rovers | League Two | 2-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.