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League Two · Full time ·Matchday 3

Newport County vs Tranmere

2 – 2 Full time

Rodney Parade, NewportReferee: E. Heaslip

Newport County 39%
Draw 29%
Tranmere 32%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Newport County vs Tranmere overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Newport County vs Tranmere

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityNewport CountyDrawTranmere
Model49.5%24.9%25.6%
Market36.1%29.9%34.1%
Final39.4%28.7%31.9%
Edge+13.4%-4.9%-8.5%

Confidence: Low

Why Newport County

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.83 vs 1.27.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Newport County below the model: +13.4 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Newport County ↓ / Tranmere → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 7% 11% 7% 2 8% 10% 6% 3 6% 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 94%
2+ goals 83%
3+ goals 60%
No goals 6%

Newport County and Tranmere expected goals

Newport County 1.83
Tranmere 1.27

Total expected goals: 3.11

Newport County and Tranmere attack and defence ratings

Newport County

Attack 1.26 +26%
Defence 1.23 +23%

Tranmere

Attack 0.87 -13%
Defence 1.06 +6%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Newport County vs Tranmere: result vs prediction

Newport County 2 – 2 Tranmere

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 3 fixtures

League Two

Before and after this match

Newport County vs Tranmere markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Newport County 39.4% 2.54 +13.4% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 60.0% 1.67 — —
Both teams to score Yes 61.6% 1.62 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 71.3% 1.40 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 50.5% 1.98 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Newport County39.4%
Draw28.7%
Tranmere31.9%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.560.0%
Under 2.540.0%
Both teams to scoreYes61.6%
No38.4%
Double chance1X (home or draw)68.1%
12 (either side)71.3%
X2 (draw or away)60.6%
Handicap -1Newport County win28.2%
Push (exactly one goal)21.3%
Loss50.5%
Correct score (top 3)1-111.5%
2-19.6%
2-07.5%

Newport County vs Tranmere stats

Newport County and Tranmere recent form

newest first
Newport County LWDWWL
Tranmere DWDDLW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Newport County and Tranmere going into this match

league record before kick-off

Newport County record

  • They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
  • 70% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Tranmere record

  • They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
  • 64% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Newport County vs Tranmere head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

5Newport County wins 1Draws 4Tranmere wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-03-03Newport CountyTranmereLeague Two3-1
2025-09-13TranmereNewport CountyLeague Two1-1
2025-05-03Newport CountyTranmereLeague Two1-4
2024-11-09TranmereNewport CountyLeague Two2-1
2024-04-13Newport CountyTranmereLeague Two1-2
2023-12-09TranmereNewport CountyLeague Two2-1
2023-03-18TranmereNewport CountyLeague Two1-3
2022-08-20Newport CountyTranmereLeague Two2-1
2022-02-26Newport CountyTranmereLeague Two4-2
2021-08-21TranmereNewport CountyLeague Two0-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Newport County vs Tranmere odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 36.1%, draw 29.9%, away 34.1%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 2.64 3.20 2.64
1xBet 2.56 3.06 2.76
Bet365 2.55 3.20 2.70
BetVictor 2.55 3.10 2.63
Betano 2.60 3.10 2.75
Betfair 2.63 3.40 2.63
Dafabet 2.65 3.25 2.75
Marathonbet 2.57 3.06 2.75
Pinnacle 2.61 3.07 2.82
SBO 2.43 2.87 2.43
Superbet 2.60 3.15 2.72
Unibet 2.40 3.20 2.65
William Hill 2.50 3.00 2.75

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.57 ▲ +0.07
X 3.10 ▼ -0.10
2 2.72 ▼ -0.07

12 snapshots recorded, from .