League Two
·
Full time
·Matchday 2
Shrewsbury
vs
Barnet
1 – 3 Full time
Shrewsbury
16%
Draw
23%
Barnet
62%
Shrewsbury vs Barnet overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Shrewsbury vs Barnet
| Probability | Shrewsbury | Draw | Barnet |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 15.6% | 22.6% | 61.8% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 15.6% | 22.6% | 61.8% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Barnet
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.04 vs 0.94.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
94%
2+ goals
81%
3+ goals
57%
No goals
6%
Shrewsbury and Barnet expected goals
Shrewsbury
0.94
Barnet
2.04
Total expected goals: 2.98
Shrewsbury and Barnet attack and defence ratings
Shrewsbury
Attack
0.65 -35%
Defence
1.02 +2%
Barnet
Attack
1.67 +67%
Defence
1.05 +5%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Shrewsbury vs Barnet: result vs prediction
Shrewsbury 1 – 3 Barnet
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 2 fixtures
Before and after this match
Shrewsbury vs Barnet markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Barnet | 61.8% | 1.62 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.3% | 1.75 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.1% | 1.85 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 84.4% | 1.19 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Barnet win | 38.7% | 2.58 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Shrewsbury | 15.6% |
| Draw | 22.6% | |
| Barnet | 61.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 42.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.1% |
| No | 45.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 38.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 77.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 84.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Barnet win | 38.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.0% | |
| Loss | 38.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.7% |
| 0-2 | 10.5% | |
| 1-2 | 9.9% |
Shrewsbury vs Barnet stats
Shrewsbury and Barnet recent form
| Shrewsbury |
LDLDDW |
| Barnet |
WLWWWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Shrewsbury and Barnet going into this match
Shrewsbury record
- They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.4 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 5 matches.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Barnet record
- They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Shrewsbury vs Barnet head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
1Shrewsbury wins
1Draws
0Barnet wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-31 | Shrewsbury | Barnet | League Two | 0-0 |
| 2025-09-06 | Barnet | Shrewsbury | League Two | 1-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.