League Two
·
Full time
·Matchday 2
Crewe
vs
Northampton
1 – 0 Full time
Crewe
62%
Draw
25%
Northampton
13%
Crewe vs Northampton overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Crewe vs Northampton
| Probability | Crewe | Draw | Northampton |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 62.1% | 24.7% | 13.3% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 62.1% | 24.7% | 13.3% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Crewe
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.78 vs 0.71.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
91%
2+ goals
72%
3+ goals
45%
No goals
9%
Crewe and Northampton expected goals
Crewe
1.78
Northampton
0.71
Total expected goals: 2.49
Crewe and Northampton attack and defence ratings
Crewe
Attack
0.92 -8%
Defence
0.97 -3%
Northampton
Attack
0.61 -39%
Defence
1.40 +40%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Crewe vs Northampton: result vs prediction
Crewe 1 – 0 Northampton
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 2 fixtures
Before and after this match
Crewe vs Northampton markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Crewe | 62.1% | 1.61 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 54.7% | 1.83 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 56.8% | 1.76 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 86.7% | 1.15 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 37.9% | 2.64 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Crewe | 62.1% |
| Draw | 24.7% | |
| Northampton | 13.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 45.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 54.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 43.2% |
| No | 56.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 86.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 37.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Crewe win | 36.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25.2% | |
| Loss | 37.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 13.8% |
| 2-0 | 13.2% | |
| 1-1 | 11.5% |
Crewe vs Northampton stats
Crewe and Northampton recent form
| Crewe |
WWDLLL |
| Northampton |
DLLLLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Crewe and Northampton going into this match
Crewe record
- They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 5 matches.
Northampton record
- They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.