League Two
·
Full time
·Matchday 6
Newport County
vs
Fleetwood Town
1 – 1 Full time
| 30′ | Mark Helm | ||
| 38′ | Christian Doidge | ||
| 41′ | Finley Potter | ||
| 45′ | Ched Evans | ||
| 54′ | Shaun Rooney | ||
| 57′ | Mark HelmCrispin McLean | ||
| 57′ | R. CirinoDanny Andrew | ||
| 63′ | Ched EvansWill davies | ||
| 63′ | Ronan CoughlanAaron Loupalo-Bi | ||
| 68′ | Aaron Loupalo-Bi | ||
| 69′ | Michael Adu-PokuYahya Bamba | ||
| 69′ | Shaquille GwengweKieron Thomas Evans | ||
| 79′ | Adam MurphyJosh Robertson | ||
| 82′ | Matty Jacobsjoe thomas | ||
| 89′ | M. Dibley-DiasMatthew Smith | ||
| 89′ | Christian DoidgeTanatswa Nyakuhwa | ||
| 90′ | R. Bennett |
Newport County
28%
Draw
27%
Fleetwood Town
45%
Match stats
| 16 | Shots | 14 |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Shots on target | 3 |
| 49 | Possession % | 51 |
| 9 | Corners | 3 |
| 10 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Offsides | 2 |
| 2 | Saves | 1 |
| 186 | Accurate passes | 239 |
Newport County vs Fleetwood Town overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Newport County vs Fleetwood Town
| Probability | Newport County | Draw | Fleetwood Town |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 24.6% | 26.7% | 48.7% |
| Market | 28.5% | 27.3% | 44.2% |
| Final | 27.6% | 27.1% | 45.3% |
| Edge | -4.0% | -0.6% | +4.6% |
Why Fleetwood Town
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.66 vs 1.12.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Fleetwood Town below the model: +4.6 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
93%
2+ goals
78%
3+ goals
52%
No goals
7%
Newport County and Fleetwood Town expected goals
Newport County
1.12
Fleetwood Town
1.66
Total expected goals: 2.78
Newport County and Fleetwood Town attack and defence ratings
Newport County
Attack
1.08 +8%
Defence
1.23 +23%
Fleetwood Town
Attack
1.13 +13%
Defence
0.74 -26%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Newport County vs Fleetwood Town: result vs prediction
Newport County 1 – 1 Fleetwood Town
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 6 fixtures
Before and after this match
Newport County vs Fleetwood Town markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Fleetwood Town | 45.3% | 2.21 | +4.6% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52.5% | 1.91 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.7% | 1.80 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 72.9% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 51.2% | 1.95 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Newport County | 27.6% |
| Draw | 27.1% | |
| Fleetwood Town | 45.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 47.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.7% |
| No | 44.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 54.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 72.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Fleetwood Town win | 26.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.2% | |
| Loss | 51.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.7% |
| 1-2 | 9.6% | |
| 0-1 | 9.2% |
Newport County vs Fleetwood Town stats
Newport County and Fleetwood Town recent form
| Newport County |
LLDLWD |
| Fleetwood Town |
WDDWDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Newport County and Fleetwood Town going into this match
Newport County record
- They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- 70% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Fleetwood Town record
- They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 5 matches.
Newport County vs Fleetwood Town head-to-head
Last 8 meetings
1Newport County wins
3Draws
4Fleetwood Town wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-28 | Fleetwood Town | Newport County | League Two | 0-0 |
| 2025-12-13 | Newport County | Fleetwood Town | League Two | 0-2 |
| 2025-04-26 | Fleetwood Town | Newport County | League Two | 2-0 |
| 2024-10-26 | Newport County | Fleetwood Town | League Two | 0-0 |
| 2014-03-04 | Newport County | Fleetwood Town | League Two | 0-0 |
| 2013-11-02 | Fleetwood Town | Newport County | League Two | 4-1 |
| 2011-12-17 | Newport County | Fleetwood Town | National League | 0-1 |
| 2011-10-11 | Fleetwood Town | Newport County | National League | 1-4 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Newport County vs Fleetwood Town odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 28.5%, draw 27.3%, away 44.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.23 | 3.42 | 2.12 |
| Bet365 | 3.40 | 3.30 | 2.10 |
| BetVictor | 3.25 | 3.40 | 2.15 |
| Betano | 3.25 | 3.40 | 2.12 |
| Betfair | 3.30 | 3.60 | 2.10 |
| Marathonbet | 3.22 | 3.42 | 2.10 |
| Pinnacle | 3.27 | 3.58 | 2.16 |
| SBO | 3.02 | 3.11 | 2.02 |
| William Hill | 3.10 | 3.30 | 2.10 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
3.25 ▲ +0.10
X
3.40 —
2
2.10 ▼ -0.06
13 snapshots recorded, from .