Bristol Rovers
vs
Exeter City
1 – 0 Full time
| 39′ | Gwion Edwards | ||
| 40′ | Steve Evans | ||
| 60′ | Ellis Harrison | ||
| 64′ | Shaqai FordeReiss-Alexander Russell-Denny | ||
| 66′ | Fabrizio Cavegn | ||
| 68′ | Jack Paul TaylorAndrew Jose Oluwabori | ||
| 77′ | Gwion EdwardsGeorge Birch | ||
| 79′ | Ellis HarrisonJoe Quigley | ||
| 85′ | Jake Doyle HayesJosh Gordon | ||
| 89′ | Fabrizio CavegnBobby Kamwa | ||
| 90′ | Jack SparkesBen Purrington |
Match stats
| 17 | Shots | 8 |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Shots on target | 5 |
| 44 | Possession % | 56 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 13 | Fouls | 12 |
| 5 | Saves | 4 |
| 148 | Accurate passes | 233 |
Bristol Rovers vs Exeter City overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Bristol Rovers vs Exeter City
| Probability | Bristol Rovers | Draw | Exeter City |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 48.3% | 30.6% | 21.1% |
| Market | 56.6% | 23.9% | 19.5% |
| Final | 54.5% | 25.6% | 19.9% |
| Edge | -8.3% | +6.7% | +1.7% |
Why Bristol Rovers
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.35 vs 0.81.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Bristol Rovers and Exeter City expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.15
Bristol Rovers and Exeter City attack and defence ratings
Bristol Rovers
Exeter City
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Bristol Rovers vs Exeter City: result vs prediction
Bristol Rovers 1 – 0 Exeter City
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
Before and after this match
Bristol Rovers vs Exeter City markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Bristol Rovers | 54.5% | 1.83 | -8.3% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 63.5% | 1.57 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 57.8% | 1.73 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.1% | 1.25 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 51.7% | 1.93 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Bristol Rovers | 54.5% |
| Draw | 25.6% | |
| Exeter City | 19.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 36.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 63.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 42.2% |
| No | 57.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 45.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Bristol Rovers win | 23.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.6% | |
| Loss | 51.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 14.4% |
| 1-1 | 13.9% | |
| 0-0 | 12.9% |
Bristol Rovers vs Exeter City stats
Bristol Rovers and Exeter City recent form
| Bristol Rovers |
LLWWWW |
| Exeter City |
DLDDLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Bristol Rovers and Exeter City going into this match
Bristol Rovers record
- They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.7 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
Exeter City record
- They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 7 matches.
Bristol Rovers vs Exeter City head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-12 | Bristol Rovers | Exeter City | League One | 1-2 |
| 2024-12-26 | Exeter City | Bristol Rovers | League One | 3-1 |
| 2024-10-29 | Bristol Rovers | Exeter City | EFL Trophy | 2-3 |
| 2024-02-03 | Exeter City | Bristol Rovers | League One | 0-1 |
| 2024-01-23 | Bristol Rovers | Exeter City | League One | 0-1 |
| 2022-12-29 | Bristol Rovers | Exeter City | League One | 3-4 |
| 2022-10-01 | Exeter City | Bristol Rovers | League One | 2-2 |
| 2022-02-26 | Bristol Rovers | Exeter City | League Two | 1-1 |
| 2021-11-10 | Exeter City | Bristol Rovers | EFL Trophy | 5-3 |
| 2021-08-21 | Exeter City | Bristol Rovers | League Two | 4-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Bristol Rovers vs Exeter City odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 56.5%, draw 23.9%, away 19.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.65 | 3.90 | 4.63 |
| Bet365 | 1.67 | 3.75 | 4.75 |
| BetVictor | 1.65 | 3.90 | 5.00 |
| Betano | 1.70 | 3.70 | 4.80 |
| Betfair | 1.65 | 3.90 | 5.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.63 | 3.90 | 4.65 |
| Pinnacle | 1.63 | 4.10 | 5.15 |
| SBO | 1.61 | 3.38 | 3.96 |
| William Hill | 1.73 | 3.70 | 4.20 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
13 snapshots recorded, from .