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League Two · Full time ·Matchday 8

Fleetwood Town vs Rochdale

1 – 2 Full time

8′Dajaune Brown
14′Aden Flint
30′Mark Helm
39′Olutobi Adebayo-Rowling
64′Jonny SmithCian Hayes
64′K. TaylorEdward Francis
64′Kayden HughesJake Thomas Batty
69′Olutobi Adebayo-Rowling
70′Adam MurphyRonan Coughlan
73′R. Cirino
84′Dajaune BrownEmmanuel Dieseruvwe
84′Glenn MiddletonDevante Rodney
88′Harvey GilmourSam·Sherring

Highbury Stadium, Fleetwood

Fleetwood Town 50%
Draw 27%
Rochdale 24%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

21 Shots 12
5 Shots on target 6
54 Possession % 46
5 Corners 5
12 Fouls 13
0 Offsides 1
4 Saves 3
355 Accurate passes 297

Fleetwood Town vs Rochdale overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Fleetwood Town vs Rochdale

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityFleetwood TownDrawRochdale
Model52.7%26.3%21.0%
Market49.0%26.6%24.4%
Final49.9%26.5%23.5%
Edge+3.7%-0.3%-3.4%

Confidence: Low

Why Fleetwood Town

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.70 vs 1.00.
  • The market prices Fleetwood Town below the model: +3.7 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Fleetwood Town ↓ / Rochdale → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 8% 1 10% 13% 2 10% 10% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 92%
2+ goals 76%
3+ goals 51%
No goals 8%

Fleetwood Town and Rochdale expected goals

Fleetwood Town 1.70
Rochdale 1.00

Total expected goals: 2.70

Fleetwood Town and Rochdale attack and defence ratings

Fleetwood Town

Attack 1.07 +7%
Defence 0.86 -14%

Rochdale

Attack 0.99 -1%
Defence 1.13 +13%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Fleetwood Town vs Rochdale: result vs prediction

Fleetwood Town 1 – 2 Rochdale

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 8 fixtures

League Two

Before and after this match

Fleetwood Town vs Rochdale markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Fleetwood Town 49.9% 2.00 +3.7% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 50.7% 1.97 — —
Both teams to score Yes 52.8% 1.89 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 76.5% 1.31 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 47.3% 2.11 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Fleetwood Town49.9%
Draw26.5%
Rochdale23.5%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.550.7%
Under 2.549.3%
Both teams to scoreYes52.8%
No47.2%
Double chance1X (home or draw)76.5%
12 (either side)73.5%
X2 (draw or away)50.1%
Handicap -1Fleetwood Town win29.5%
Push (exactly one goal)23.2%
Loss47.3%
Correct score (top 3)1-112.6%
1-010.3%
2-19.7%

Fleetwood Town vs Rochdale stats

Fleetwood Town and Rochdale recent form

newest first
Fleetwood Town LWDWDD
Rochdale WDLWLL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Fleetwood Town and Rochdale going into this match

league record before kick-off

Fleetwood Town record

  • They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.

Rochdale record

  • They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.0 on the road.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.

Fleetwood Town vs Rochdale head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

4Fleetwood Town wins 4Draws 2Rochdale wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2024-07-20Fleetwood TownRochdaleFriendlies Clubs1-1
2021-07-17RochdaleFleetwood TownFriendlies Clubs3-3
2021-04-10Fleetwood TownRochdaleLeague One1-0
2020-10-03RochdaleFleetwood TownLeague One2-1
2019-12-26RochdaleFleetwood TownLeague One2-3
2019-09-21Fleetwood TownRochdaleLeague One2-1
2019-01-19RochdaleFleetwood TownLeague One1-1
2018-10-09Fleetwood TownRochdaleEFL Trophy0-2
2018-08-18Fleetwood TownRochdaleLeague One2-2
2018-03-20RochdaleFleetwood TownLeague One0-2

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Fleetwood Town vs Rochdale odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 49.2%, draw 26.4%, away 24.3%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.88 3.50 3.82
Bet365 1.90 3.60 3.75
BetVictor 1.90 3.50 4.00
Betano 1.93 3.50 3.75
Betfair 1.87 3.60 4.10
Marathonbet 1.86 3.50 3.80
Pinnacle 1.90 3.69 3.94
SBO 1.82 3.09 3.36
William Hill 1.85 3.40 3.80

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.90 ▲ +0.06
X 3.50 ▼ -0.16
2 3.82 —

13 snapshots recorded, from .