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League Two · Full time ·Matchday 8

Newport County vs Grimsby

2 – 1 Full time

10′M. Dibley-Dias
36′Mark SheltonRyley Reynolds
57′Christian Doidge
59′Iwan MorganAndy Cook
59′Finn CartwrightSonny Finch
63′Andy Cook
69′Shaquille Gwengwe
71′Cameron Normanjoe thomas
72′Kieran Green
73′Charles VernamReece Staunton
73′Jayden SweeneyJustin Ikechukwu Obiora Amaluzor
81′M. Dibley-DiasAaron Lewis
81′Shaquille GwengweGerard Garner
83′Jordan Wright
90′Matty Jacobs
90′Michael Adu-PokuYahya Bamba

Rodney Parade, Newport

Newport County 24%
Draw 26%
Grimsby 50%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

10 Shots 10
5 Shots on target 3
33 Possession % 67
7 Corners 3
14 Fouls 9
2 Offsides 7
3 Saves 3
118 Accurate passes 363

Newport County vs Grimsby overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Newport County vs Grimsby

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityNewport CountyDrawGrimsby
Model28.5%27.1%44.4%
Market22.6%26.0%51.4%
Final24.0%26.3%49.7%
Edge+6.0%+1.1%-7.0%

Confidence: Low

Why Grimsby

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.59 vs 1.23.
  • Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Newport County ↓ / Grimsby → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 7% 8% 8% 1 13% 9% 2 7% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 93%
2+ goals 78%
3+ goals 54%
No goals 7%

Newport County and Grimsby expected goals

Newport County 1.23
Grimsby 1.59

Total expected goals: 2.82

Newport County and Grimsby attack and defence ratings

Newport County

Attack 0.98 -2%
Defence 1.07 +7%

Grimsby

Attack 1.27 +27%
Defence 0.90 -10%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Newport County vs Grimsby: result vs prediction

Newport County 2 – 1 Grimsby

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 8 fixtures

League Two

Before and after this match

Newport County vs Grimsby markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Grimsby 49.7% 2.01 -7.0% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 53.5% 1.87 — —
Both teams to score Yes 57.5% 1.74 — —
Double chance X2 (draw or away) 76.0% 1.32 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 55.6% 1.80 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Newport County24.0%
Draw26.3%
Grimsby49.7%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.553.5%
Under 2.546.5%
Both teams to scoreYes57.5%
No42.5%
Double chance1X (home or draw)50.3%
12 (either side)73.7%
X2 (draw or away)76.0%
Handicap -1Grimsby win23.3%
Push (exactly one goal)21.1%
Loss55.6%
Correct score (top 3)1-112.8%
1-29.3%
0-18.3%

Newport County vs Grimsby stats

Newport County and Grimsby recent form

newest first
Newport County DDLLDL
Grimsby WWDDDD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Newport County and Grimsby going into this match

league record before kick-off

Newport County record

  • They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
  • They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
  • 75% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Grimsby record

  • They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 7 matches.
  • 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Newport County vs Grimsby head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

2Newport County wins 4Draws 4Grimsby wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-02-07Newport CountyGrimsbyLeague Two0-0
2025-08-16GrimsbyNewport CountyLeague Two2-1
2025-03-22GrimsbyNewport CountyLeague Two1-0
2024-11-16Newport CountyGrimsbyLeague Two0-0
2024-04-06GrimsbyNewport CountyLeague Two1-0
2023-12-16Newport CountyGrimsbyLeague Two1-1
2023-03-07GrimsbyNewport CountyLeague Two1-1
2022-09-03Newport CountyGrimsbyLeague Two0-2
2021-02-06Newport CountyGrimsbyLeague Two1-0
2020-12-08GrimsbyNewport CountyLeague Two0-2

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Newport County vs Grimsby odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 22.6%, draw 26.1%, away 51.4%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 4.06 3.54 1.82
Bet365 4.10 3.60 1.83
BetVictor 4.20 3.70 1.80
Betano 4.15 3.55 1.82
Betfair 4.20 3.75 1.80
Marathonbet 4.05 3.54 1.80
Pinnacle 4.25 3.69 1.84
SBO 3.53 3.13 1.77
William Hill 4.00 3.40 1.80

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 4.15 ▲ +0.25
X 3.60 ▲ +0.02
2 1.82 ▼ -0.03

13 snapshots recorded, from .