League Two
·
Full time
·Matchday 8
Swindon Town
vs
Accrington ST
1 – 1 Full time
| 1′ | Josh Woods | ||
| 31′ | Joseph Hungbo | ||
| 45′ | Liam CoyleAlex Henderson | ||
| 51′ | Kaelan Majekodunmi | ||
| 66′ | Josh Woods | ||
| 67′ | Ollie ClarkeMatthew Virtue-Thick | ||
| 67′ | Paul Glatzelantwoine hackford | ||
| 68′ | Joseph HungboDaniel Butterworth | ||
| 68′ | Tyler WaltonCole Stockton | ||
| 68′ | Stefan MolsCharlie Warren | ||
| 71′ | James BallJames Debayo | ||
| 80′ | Dan ButlerBilly Kirkman | ||
| 83′ | Josh WoodsJoel Catesby |
Swindon Town
42%
Draw
26%
Accrington ST
32%
Match stats
| 11 | Shots | 12 |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Shots on target | 4 |
| 58 | Possession % | 42 |
| 6 | Corners | 7 |
| 6 | Fouls | 6 |
| 0 | Offsides | 2 |
| 3 | Saves | 3 |
| 293 | Accurate passes | 170 |
Swindon Town vs Accrington ST overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Swindon Town vs Accrington ST
| Probability | Swindon Town | Draw | Accrington ST |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 39.4% | 24.9% | 35.7% |
| Market | 42.5% | 26.9% | 30.6% |
| Final | 41.7% | 26.4% | 31.9% |
| Edge | -3.1% | -2.0% | +5.0% |
Why Swindon Town
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
95%
2+ goals
85%
3+ goals
65%
No goals
5%
Swindon Town and Accrington ST expected goals
Swindon Town
1.71
Accrington ST
1.62
Total expected goals: 3.33
Swindon Town and Accrington ST attack and defence ratings
Swindon Town
Attack
0.91 -9%
Defence
1.35 +35%
Accrington ST
Attack
1.03 +3%
Defence
1.35 +35%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Swindon Town vs Accrington ST: result vs prediction
Swindon Town 1 – 1 Accrington ST
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
Before and after this match
Swindon Town vs Accrington ST markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Swindon Town | 41.7% | 2.40 | -3.1% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64.6% | 1.55 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66.6% | 1.50 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.6% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 60.6% | 1.65 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Swindon Town | 41.7% |
| Draw | 26.4% | |
| Accrington ST | 31.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 35.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66.6% |
| No | 33.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 68.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 58.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Swindon Town win | 20.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.6% | |
| Loss | 60.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.9% |
| 2-1 | 8.5% | |
| 1-2 | 8.0% |
Swindon Town vs Accrington ST stats
Swindon Town and Accrington ST recent form
| Swindon Town |
LLWWLW |
| Accrington ST |
DLWDLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Swindon Town and Accrington ST going into this match
Swindon Town record
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 2.7 goals per game at home against 0.0 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 7 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Accrington ST record
- They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Swindon Town vs Accrington ST head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
2Swindon Town wins
4Draws
4Accrington ST wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-18 | Swindon Town | Accrington ST | League Two | 2-2 |
| 2025-10-18 | Accrington ST | Swindon Town | League Two | 4-0 |
| 2025-03-22 | Swindon Town | Accrington ST | League Two | 0-0 |
| 2024-11-30 | Accrington ST | Swindon Town | England FA Cup | 2-2 |
| 2024-11-16 | Accrington ST | Swindon Town | League Two | 2-2 |
| 2024-03-12 | Swindon Town | Accrington ST | League Two | 1-2 |
| 2023-11-28 | Accrington ST | Swindon Town | League Two | 3-4 |
| 2021-03-06 | Accrington ST | Swindon Town | League One | 2-1 |
| 2020-11-17 | Swindon Town | Accrington ST | League One | 0-3 |
| 2018-05-05 | Swindon Town | Accrington ST | League Two | 3-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Swindon Town vs Accrington ST odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 42.4%, draw 26.8%, away 30.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.19 | 3.48 | 2.98 |
| Bet365 | 2.20 | 3.40 | 3.10 |
| BetVictor | 2.20 | 3.50 | 3.10 |
| Betano | 2.20 | 3.45 | 3.05 |
| Betfair | 2.20 | 3.60 | 3.10 |
| Marathonbet | 2.17 | 3.48 | 2.96 |
| Pinnacle | 2.25 | 3.66 | 3.02 |
| SBO | 2.00 | 3.11 | 2.86 |
| William Hill | 2.15 | 3.30 | 3.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
2.20 ▲ +0.19
X
3.48 ▼ -0.13
2
3.05 ▼ -0.20
13 snapshots recorded, from .