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League Two · Full time ·Matchday 9

Rochdale vs Swindon Town

1 – 0 Full time

23′Jonny SmithLuke Hannant
69′Tom NicholsOllie Clarke
72′Luke HannantCian Hayes
73′Edward FrancisEmmanuel Dieseruvwe
81′Kaelan Majekodunmi
83′Aaron DrinanJoseph Hungbo
85′Kaelan Majekodunmi
88′Cian Hayes
90′Billy KirkmanDaniel Butterworth
90′Jack ThomsonLouis Millard

Spotland, Rochdale

Rochdale 45%
Draw 26%
Swindon Town 29%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

15 Shots 12
5 Shots on target 2
60 Possession % 40
11 Corners 5
7 Fouls 18
4 Offsides 0
2 Saves 4
385 Accurate passes 236

Rochdale vs Swindon Town overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Rochdale vs Swindon Town

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityRochdaleDrawSwindon Town
Model53.8%24.4%21.8%
Market41.5%26.7%31.8%
Final44.6%26.1%29.3%
Edge+12.3%-2.3%-9.9%

Confidence: Low

Why Rochdale

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.90 vs 1.15.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Rochdale below the model: +12.3 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Rochdale ↓ / Swindon Town → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 6% 1 8% 11% 6% 2 9% 10% 3 6% 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 94%
2+ goals 82%
3+ goals 59%
No goals 6%

Rochdale and Swindon Town expected goals

Rochdale 1.90
Swindon Town 1.15

Total expected goals: 3.05

Rochdale and Swindon Town attack and defence ratings

Rochdale

Attack 1.05 +5%
Defence 1.10 +10%

Swindon Town

Attack 0.90 -10%
Defence 1.29 +29%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Rochdale vs Swindon Town: result vs prediction

Rochdale 1 – 0 Swindon Town

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 9 fixtures

League Two

Before and after this match

Rochdale vs Swindon Town markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Rochdale 44.6% 2.24 +12.3% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 58.9% 1.70 — —
Both teams to score Yes 59.3% 1.69 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 73.9% 1.35 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 46.2% 2.17 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Rochdale44.6%
Draw26.1%
Swindon Town29.3%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.558.9%
Under 2.541.1%
Both teams to scoreYes59.3%
No40.7%
Double chance1X (home or draw)70.7%
12 (either side)73.9%
X2 (draw or away)55.4%
Handicap -1Rochdale win31.8%
Push (exactly one goal)22.1%
Loss46.2%
Correct score (top 3)1-111.4%
2-19.8%
2-08.5%

Rochdale vs Swindon Town stats

Rochdale and Swindon Town recent form

newest first
Rochdale WWDLWL
Swindon Town DLLWWL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Rochdale and Swindon Town going into this match

league record before kick-off

Rochdale record

  • They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.

Swindon Town record

  • They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 0.0 on the road.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 8 matches.

Rochdale vs Swindon Town head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

2Rochdale wins 4Draws 4Swindon Town wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2023-03-18RochdaleSwindon TownLeague Two4-4
2022-08-20Swindon TownRochdaleLeague Two3-0
2022-04-02RochdaleSwindon TownLeague Two0-0
2021-10-16Swindon TownRochdaleLeague Two2-2
2021-04-13RochdaleSwindon TownLeague One2-1
2020-09-12Swindon TownRochdaleLeague One3-1
2016-11-19RochdaleSwindon TownLeague One4-0
2016-10-18Swindon TownRochdaleLeague One3-0
2016-04-30RochdaleSwindon TownLeague One2-2
2015-12-12Swindon TownRochdaleLeague One2-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Rochdale vs Swindon Town odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 41.5%, draw 26.7%, away 31.8%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.30 3.79 2.85
Bet365 2.25 3.40 3.00
BetVictor 2.25 3.50 3.00
Betano 2.25 3.50 2.92
Betfair 2.20 3.70 3.00
Marathonbet 2.17 3.50 2.94
Pinnacle 2.26 3.57 3.08
SBO 2.18 3.08 2.73
William Hill 2.20 3.30 2.90

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.25 ▼ -0.13
X 3.50 ▲ +0.10
2 2.94 ▲ +0.17

13 snapshots recorded, from .