Garuda Lions
Today
League Two · Full time ·Matchday 9

Crewe vs Bristol Rovers

3 – 1 Full time

1′Jack Lankester
8′Josh March
8′Thomas James
10′Joshua Stephenson
21′Jack Lankester
30′Ciaran Kelly
38′Owen lunt
45′Richard SmallwoodKeenan Gough
45′Alfie KilgourPhilip Sanyaolu
45′Jack SparkesBen Purrington
45′Reiss-Alexander Russell-DennyShaqai Forde
50′Joel TabinerJordan Gibson
62′Jack LankesterConor Thomas
66′Jordan Gibson
74′Ellis HarrisonJoe Quigley
77′Keenan Gough
79′Conor Thomas
81′Adrien thibautCharlie McNeill
89′Clinton Mola
90′Bobby Kamwa

Alexandra Stadium, Crewe

Crewe 32%
Draw 28%
Bristol Rovers 40%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

9 Shots 15
4 Shots on target 4
49 Possession % 51
3 Corners 5
13 Fouls 23
1 Offsides 1
3 Saves 1
173 Accurate passes 183

Crewe vs Bristol Rovers overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Crewe vs Bristol Rovers

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityCreweDrawBristol Rovers
Model33.0%30.6%36.4%
Market31.2%27.7%41.1%
Final31.7%28.4%39.9%
Edge+1.8%+2.9%-4.7%

Confidence: Low

Why Bristol Rovers

  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Crewe ↓ / Bristol Rovers → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 11% 10% 1 10% 14% 8% 2 8% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 89%
2+ goals 69%
3+ goals 42%
No goals 11%

Crewe and Bristol Rovers expected goals

Crewe 1.14
Bristol Rovers 1.21

Total expected goals: 2.35

Crewe and Bristol Rovers attack and defence ratings

Crewe

Attack 0.87 -13%
Defence 0.91 -9%

Bristol Rovers

Attack 1.14 +14%
Defence 0.93 -7%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Crewe vs Bristol Rovers: result vs prediction

Crewe 3 – 1 Bristol Rovers

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 9 fixtures

League Two

Before and after this match

Crewe vs Bristol Rovers markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Bristol Rovers 39.9% 2.51 -4.7% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 58.2% 1.72 — —
Both teams to score No 50.9% 1.96 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 71.6% 1.40 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 63.7% 1.57 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Crewe31.7%
Draw28.4%
Bristol Rovers39.9%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.541.8%
Under 2.558.2%
Both teams to scoreYes49.1%
No50.9%
Double chance1X (home or draw)60.1%
12 (either side)71.6%
X2 (draw or away)68.3%
Handicap -1Bristol Rovers win16.1%
Push (exactly one goal)20.2%
Loss63.7%
Correct score (top 3)1-114.5%
0-010.8%
0-110.2%

Crewe vs Bristol Rovers stats

Crewe and Bristol Rovers recent form

newest first
Crewe DDDDDD
Bristol Rovers WLLWWW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Crewe and Bristol Rovers going into this match

league record before kick-off

Crewe record

  • They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • They average 1.2 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.

Bristol Rovers record

  • They have won 5 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 8 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.

Crewe vs Bristol Rovers head-to-head

Last 7 meetings

4Crewe wins 1Draws 2Bristol Rovers wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-03-07Bristol RoversCreweLeague Two2-1
2025-12-19CreweBristol RoversLeague Two1-1
2023-12-12CreweBristol RoversFA Cup2-4
2021-05-01Bristol RoversCreweLeague One0-1
2021-01-19CreweBristol RoversLeague One3-2
2012-04-09CreweBristol RoversLeague Two3-0
2011-12-31Bristol RoversCreweLeague Two2-5

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Crewe vs Bristol Rovers odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 31.2%, draw 27.7%, away 41.1%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.84 3.78 2.31
Bet365 3.00 3.30 2.30
BetVictor 3.00 3.40 2.30
Betano 3.10 3.30 2.27
Betfair 3.00 3.60 2.25
Marathonbet 2.91 3.30 2.28
Pinnacle 3.09 3.38 2.34
SBO 2.75 3.11 2.15
William Hill 2.90 3.40 2.20

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 3.00 ▲ +0.12
X 3.38 —
2 2.28 ▼ -0.01

13 snapshots recorded, from .