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League Two · Full time ·Matchday 10

Bristol Rovers vs Barnet

1 – 3 Full time

4′Ellis Harrison
29′Shaqai Forde
31′Idris Kanu
59′Romoney Crichlow-NobleNikola Tavares
59′Jake ReevesBrandon Comley
59′Tom KnowlesDamola Ajayi
65′Ben Purrington
65′Steve Evans
73′Idris KanuJ Maskell
79′Adam Senior
85′Tommy Leigh
86′Zac Williams
88′Ellis HarrisonJoe Quigley
90′Charlie LakinMyles Kenlock
90′Daniele Collinge
90′Kabongo Tshimanga

Memorial Stadium, BristolReferee: T. Robinson

Bristol Rovers 39%
Draw 25%
Barnet 36%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

18 Shots 17
4 Shots on target 3
40 Possession % 60
8 Corners 2
16 Fouls 9
1 Offsides 0
0 Saves 3
130 Accurate passes 248

Bristol Rovers vs Barnet overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Bristol Rovers vs Barnet

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityBristol RoversDrawBarnet
Model30.2%22.0%47.8%
Market41.3%26.6%32.1%
Final38.5%25.5%36.0%
Edge-2.8%-1.1%+3.9%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Bristol Rovers ↓ / Barnet → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 5% 1 8% 8% 6% 5% 2 7% 7% 5% 5% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 97%
2+ goals 91%
3+ goals 75%
No goals 3%

Bristol Rovers and Barnet expected goals

Bristol Rovers 1.73
Barnet 2.19

Total expected goals: 3.92

Bristol Rovers and Barnet attack and defence ratings

Bristol Rovers

Attack 1.11 +11%
Defence 1.09 +9%

Barnet

Attack 1.73 +73%
Defence 1.11 +11%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Bristol Rovers vs Barnet: result vs prediction

Bristol Rovers 1 – 3 Barnet

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 10 fixtures

League Two

Before and after this match

Bristol Rovers vs Barnet markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Bristol Rovers 38.5% 2.60 -2.8% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 74.8% 1.34 — —
Both teams to score Yes 73.7% 1.36 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 74.5% 1.34 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 69.8% 1.43 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Bristol Rovers38.5%
Draw25.5%
Barnet36.0%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.574.8%
Under 2.525.2%
Both teams to scoreYes73.7%
No26.3%
Double chance1X (home or draw)64.0%
12 (either side)74.5%
X2 (draw or away)61.5%
Handicap -1Bristol Rovers win15.3%
Push (exactly one goal)14.9%
Loss69.8%
Correct score (top 3)1-18.3%
1-28.2%
2-27.1%

Bristol Rovers vs Barnet stats

Bristol Rovers and Barnet recent form

newest first
Bristol Rovers LWLLWW
Barnet WWDDDW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Bristol Rovers and Barnet going into this match

league record before kick-off

Bristol Rovers record

  • They have won 5 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 9 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.

Barnet record

  • They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
  • 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Bristol Rovers vs Barnet head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

3Bristol Rovers wins 2Draws 5Barnet wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2025-12-29Bristol RoversBarnetLeague Two0-2
2025-12-09BarnetBristol RoversLeague Two4-0
2018-11-21Bristol RoversBarnetFA Cup1-2
2018-11-11BarnetBristol RoversFA Cup1-1
2016-01-09BarnetBristol RoversLeague Two1-0
2015-08-22Bristol RoversBarnetLeague Two3-1
2014-11-25Bristol RoversBarnetNational League2-1
2014-08-12BarnetBristol RoversNational League2-0
2013-02-01Bristol RoversBarnetLeague Two2-1
2012-08-21BarnetBristol RoversLeague Two1-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Bristol Rovers vs Barnet odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 41.3%, draw 26.6%, away 32.1%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.26 3.42 2.90
Bet365 2.30 3.50 2.80
BetVictor 2.25 3.60 2.90
Betano 2.27 3.50 2.90
Betfair 2.20 3.70 3.00
Dafabet 2.28 3.65 2.95
Marathonbet 2.24 3.42 2.88
Pinnacle 2.34 3.59 2.91
SBO 2.14 3.17 2.71
William Hill 2.25 3.40 2.80

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.25 ▲ +0.08
X 3.50 ▼ -0.10
2 2.90 ▼ -0.02

13 snapshots recorded, from .