Shrewsbury
vs
Exeter City
Garuda Lions Prediction: Shrewsbury
1 – 0 Predicted score · 14% model probability
Shrewsbury vs Exeter City overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Shrewsbury vs Exeter City
| Probability | Shrewsbury | Draw | Exeter City |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 32.6% | 35.7% | 31.7% |
| Market | 40.8% | 28.8% | 30.4% |
| Final | 38.7% | 30.5% | 30.7% |
| Edge | -8.2% | +6.9% | +1.3% |
Why Shrewsbury
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 2.31, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Shrewsbury vs Exeter City match preview
In the upcoming League Two match, Shrewsbury faces Exeter City with Shrewsbury holding a 39% probability of winning, while Exeter City has a 31% chance. The likelihood of a draw stands at 30%. The most probable scoreline is 1-0 in favor of Shrewsbury, with a 14% chance of occurring. Both teams have shown modest attacking capabilities, with expected goals of 0.90 for Shrewsbury and 0.88 for Exeter City.
Recent form indicates Shrewsbury has recorded one win, two draws, and two losses in their last five matches, while Exeter City has one win, two draws, and two losses. The probabilities suggest a relatively balanced encounter, with a 27% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 36% chance for both teams to score. The confidence grade for this match is C, reflecting a moderate level of certainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Shrewsbury and Exeter City expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.79
Shrewsbury and Exeter City attack and defence ratings
Shrewsbury
Exeter City
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
Shrewsbury vs Exeter City markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Shrewsbury | 38.7% | 2.58 | -8.2% | 2.31 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 73.4% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 63.8% | 1.57 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 69.5% | 1.44 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 67.4% | 1.48 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Shrewsbury | 38.7% |
| Draw | 30.5% | |
| Exeter City | 30.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 26.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 73.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 36.2% |
| No | 63.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 69.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 69.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 61.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Shrewsbury win | 11.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.6% | |
| Loss | 67.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-0 | 18.1% |
| 1-1 | 14.7% | |
| 1-0 | 13.8% |
Shrewsbury vs Exeter City stats
Shrewsbury and Exeter City recent form
| Shrewsbury |
WDDWLL |
| Exeter City |
WLDLDD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Shrewsbury and Exeter City season so far
Shrewsbury record
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
Exeter City record
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
- They average 0.8 goals per game at home against 0.2 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 9 matches.
Shrewsbury vs Exeter City head-to-head
Last 9 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-08 | Exeter City | Shrewsbury | League One | 2-0 |
| 2024-10-17 | Shrewsbury | Exeter City | League One | 0-2 |
| 2024-03-12 | Shrewsbury | Exeter City | League One | 0-3 |
| 2023-11-28 | Exeter City | Shrewsbury | League One | 0-0 |
| 2023-02-14 | Exeter City | Shrewsbury | League One | 0-0 |
| 2022-09-13 | Shrewsbury | Exeter City | League One | 3-2 |
| 2021-07-31 | Exeter City | Shrewsbury | Friendlies Clubs | 0-2 |
| 2015-04-11 | Shrewsbury | Exeter City | League Two | 4-0 |
| 2014-11-22 | Exeter City | Shrewsbury | League Two | 3-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Shrewsbury vs Exeter City odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 40.8%, draw 28.8%, away 30.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.29 | 3.18 | 3.04 |
| Bet365 | 2.25 | 3.10 | 3.25 |
| BetVictor | 2.30 | 3.25 | 3.10 |
| Betano | 2.27 | 3.35 | 3.00 |
| Betfair | 2.30 | 3.40 | 3.10 |
| Dafabet | 2.30 | 3.30 | 3.20 |
| Marathonbet | 2.27 | 3.18 | 3.02 |
| Pinnacle | 2.31 | 3.30 | 3.07 |
| SBO | 2.12 | 2.92 | 2.80 |
| William Hill | 2.25 | 3.20 | 2.90 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .