Rotherham
vs
Gillingham
Garuda Lions Prediction: Rotherham
1 – 0 Predicted score · 9% model probability
Rotherham vs Gillingham overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Rotherham vs Gillingham
| Probability | Rotherham | Draw | Gillingham |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 37.3% | 29.4% | 33.2% |
| Market | 49.1% | 27.0% | 23.9% |
| Final | 46.1% | 27.6% | 26.2% |
| Edge | -11.7% | +2.4% | +9.3% |
Best available price on the pick: 1.93, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Rotherham vs Gillingham match preview
Rotherham will face Gillingham in a League Two matchup on October 10, 2026. The model indicates a probability of 37% for a Rotherham victory, while Gillingham has a 33% chance of winning, and a draw stands at 29%. The expected goals for Rotherham are 1.30, slightly higher than Gillingham's 1.21. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 in favor of Rotherham, with a 9% probability.
In terms of recent form, Rotherham has recorded results of L-D-W-D-L-D, while Gillingham's form shows D-L-W-W-W-D. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals is at 46%, and both teams scoring has a probability of 52%. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating moderate certainty in the model's predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Rotherham and Gillingham expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.51
Rotherham and Gillingham attack and defence ratings
Rotherham
Gillingham
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
Rotherham vs Gillingham markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Rotherham | 46.1% | 2.17 | -11.7% | 1.93 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 54.0% | 1.85 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.4% | 1.91 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 73.8% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 62.7% | 1.60 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Rotherham | 46.1% |
| Draw | 27.6% | |
| Gillingham | 26.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 46.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 54.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.4% |
| No | 47.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 73.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 53.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Rotherham win | 17.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.1% | |
| Loss | 62.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.1% |
| 0-0 | 9.4% | |
| 1-0 | 9.3% |
Rotherham vs Gillingham stats
Rotherham and Gillingham recent form
| Rotherham |
LDWDLD |
| Gillingham |
DLWWWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Rotherham and Gillingham season so far
Rotherham record
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
Gillingham record
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 9 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Rotherham vs Gillingham head-to-head
Last 9 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-04-30 | Gillingham | Rotherham | League One | 0-2 |
| 2021-12-07 | Rotherham | Gillingham | League One | 5-1 |
| 2019-11-02 | Gillingham | Rotherham | League One | 0-3 |
| 2018-04-17 | Gillingham | Rotherham | League One | 0-1 |
| 2017-10-28 | Rotherham | Gillingham | League One | 1-3 |
| 2014-04-05 | Gillingham | Rotherham | League One | 3-4 |
| 2013-11-30 | Rotherham | Gillingham | League One | 4-1 |
| 2013-04-01 | Gillingham | Rotherham | League Two | 1-0 |
| 2012-12-08 | Rotherham | Gillingham | League Two | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Rotherham vs Gillingham odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 49.1%, draw 27.0%, away 23.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.91 | 3.45 | 3.76 |
| Bet365 | 1.85 | 3.40 | 4.10 |
| BetVictor | 1.87 | 3.60 | 4.00 |
| Betano | 1.91 | 3.45 | 3.90 |
| Betfair | 1.91 | 3.60 | 4.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.93 | 3.55 | 4.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.89 | 3.45 | 3.74 |
| Pinnacle | 1.93 | 3.55 | 3.82 |
| SBO | 1.84 | 3.00 | 3.46 |
| William Hill | 1.85 | 3.30 | 3.90 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .