Oldham
vs
Accrington ST
Garuda Lions Prediction: Oldham
2 – 1 Predicted score · 8% model probability
Oldham vs Accrington ST overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Oldham vs Accrington ST
| Probability | Oldham | Draw | Accrington ST |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 33.5% | 26.0% | 40.6% |
| Market | 56.4% | 24.2% | 19.4% |
| Final | 50.7% | 24.6% | 24.7% |
| Edge | -22.9% | +1.8% | +21.2% |
Best available price on the pick: 1.70, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Oldham vs Accrington ST match preview
Oldham faces Accrington ST in a League Two clash, with the model giving Oldham a 52% chance of victory, while both teams are tied at 24% for a draw or an Accrington win. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 2-1 in favor of Oldham, with an 8% probability. The expectation for goals is relatively high, with a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals, and 63% likelihood that both teams will score.
In terms of recent form, Oldham has struggled, recording four losses and one draw in their last six matches, while Accrington ST has shown more resilience with two wins and three draws in their last six games. The head-to-head record favors Accrington ST, who have won two of the last three encounters, while Oldham has secured one victory. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating moderate certainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Oldham and Accrington ST expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.09
Oldham and Accrington ST attack and defence ratings
Oldham
Accrington ST
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
Oldham vs Accrington ST markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Oldham | 50.7% | 1.97 | -22.9% | 1.70 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.8% | 1.67 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62.9% | 1.59 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 75.4% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 66.5% | 1.50 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Oldham | 50.7% |
| Draw | 24.6% | |
| Accrington ST | 24.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 40.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62.9% |
| No | 37.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 75.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 49.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Oldham win | 16.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17.3% | |
| Loss | 66.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.9% |
| 1-2 | 8.8% | |
| 2-1 | 7.9% |
Oldham vs Accrington ST stats
Oldham and Accrington ST recent form
| Oldham |
LLLLDW |
| Accrington ST |
WDDLWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Oldham and Accrington ST season so far
Oldham record
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
Accrington ST record
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Oldham vs Accrington ST head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | Oldham | Accrington ST | League Two | 3-0 |
| 2025-11-29 | Accrington ST | Oldham | League Two | 1-0 |
| 2025-08-05 | Accrington ST | Oldham | League Cup | 3-1 |
| 2021-08-24 | Oldham | Accrington ST | League Cup | 0-0 |
| 2019-10-08 | Oldham | Accrington ST | EFL Trophy | 0-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Oldham vs Accrington ST odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 56.4%, draw 24.2%, away 19.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.64 | 3.88 | 4.78 |
| Bet365 | 1.65 | 3.75 | 5.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.65 | 3.90 | 5.00 |
| Betano | 1.67 | 3.80 | 4.75 |
| Betfair | 1.65 | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.66 | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.62 | 3.88 | 4.80 |
| Pinnacle | 1.70 | 3.82 | 4.61 |
| SBO | 1.53 | 3.50 | 4.38 |
| William Hill | 1.65 | 3.70 | 4.80 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .