League Two
·
Full time
·Matchday 11
Accrington ST
vs
Gillingham
3 – 1 Full time
| 6′ | Devon matthews | ||
| 11′ | Stefan Mols | ||
| 19′ | Donald Love | ||
| 21′ | Harry Waldock | ||
| 28′ | Josh Woods | ||
| 31′ | Devon matthews | ||
| 33′ | Armani Little | ||
| 54′ | Logan DobbsJack Daley | ||
| 55′ | Harry WaldockEthan·Coleman | ||
| 55′ | Armani LittleTom Eaves | ||
| 66′ | Josh Woods | ||
| 70′ | Andy SmithGarath McCleary | ||
| 70′ | Lamin SillahBradley Dack | ||
| 76′ | Charlie WarrenConor Grant | ||
| 79′ | Ronan Chapman Hale |
Accrington ST
39%
Draw
27%
Gillingham
34%
Match stats
| 21 | Shots | 6 |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Shots on target | 0 |
| 56 | Possession % | 44 |
| 11 | Corners | 1 |
| 8 | Fouls | 15 |
| 1 | Offsides | 0 |
| 0 | Saves | 4 |
| 232 | Accurate passes | 192 |
Accrington ST vs Gillingham overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Accrington ST vs Gillingham
| Probability | Accrington ST | Draw | Gillingham |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 35.2% | 27.7% | 37.1% |
| Market | 40.5% | 27.2% | 32.3% |
| Final | 39.2% | 27.3% | 33.5% |
| Edge | -5.3% | +0.5% | +4.8% |
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
93%
2+ goals
78%
3+ goals
53%
No goals
7%
Accrington ST and Gillingham expected goals
Accrington ST
1.38
Gillingham
1.42
Total expected goals: 2.80
Accrington ST and Gillingham attack and defence ratings
Accrington ST
Attack
0.97 -3%
Defence
1.05 +5%
Gillingham
Attack
1.15 +15%
Defence
1.02 +2%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Accrington ST vs Gillingham: result vs prediction
Accrington ST 3 – 1 Gillingham
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
Before and after this match
Accrington ST vs Gillingham markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Accrington ST | 39.2% | 2.55 | -5.3% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52.9% | 1.89 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.8% | 1.73 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 72.7% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 64.7% | 1.55 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Accrington ST | 39.2% |
| Draw | 27.3% | |
| Gillingham | 33.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 47.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.8% |
| No | 42.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 66.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 60.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Accrington ST win | 16.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.6% | |
| Loss | 64.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.1% |
| 1-2 | 8.5% | |
| 2-1 | 8.2% |
Accrington ST vs Gillingham stats
Accrington ST and Gillingham recent form
| Accrington ST |
DWDDLW |
| Gillingham |
WDLWWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Accrington ST and Gillingham going into this match
Accrington ST record
- They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Gillingham record
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game on the road against 1.2 at home.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 10 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Accrington ST vs Gillingham head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
2Accrington ST wins
3Draws
5Gillingham wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-06 | Gillingham | Accrington ST | League Two | 2-0 |
| 2025-08-02 | Accrington ST | Gillingham | League Two | 1-1 |
| 2025-03-15 | Accrington ST | Gillingham | League Two | 1-1 |
| 2024-10-12 | Gillingham | Accrington ST | League Two | 1-2 |
| 2024-01-13 | Accrington ST | Gillingham | League Two | 1-2 |
| 2023-08-12 | Gillingham | Accrington ST | League Two | 1-0 |
| 2022-03-26 | Accrington ST | Gillingham | League One | 1-2 |
| 2021-10-30 | Gillingham | Accrington ST | League One | 0-0 |
| 2021-01-16 | Accrington ST | Gillingham | League One | 0-1 |
| 2020-12-15 | Gillingham | Accrington ST | League One | 0-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Accrington ST vs Gillingham odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 40.3%, draw 27.1%, away 32.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.29 | 3.44 | 2.84 |
| Bet365 | 2.30 | 3.30 | 3.00 |
| BetVictor | 2.30 | 3.40 | 3.00 |
| Betano | 2.30 | 3.55 | 2.85 |
| Betfair | 2.45 | 3.30 | 2.80 |
| Dafabet | 2.40 | 3.50 | 2.90 |
| Marathonbet | 2.27 | 3.44 | 2.82 |
| Pinnacle | 2.34 | 3.59 | 2.92 |
| SBO | 2.23 | 3.01 | 2.57 |
| William Hill | 2.30 | 3.30 | 2.80 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
2.30 ▲ +0.09
X
3.42 ▼ -0.08
2
2.88 ▼ -0.02
13 snapshots recorded, from .