League Two
·
Full time
·Matchday 11
Port Vale
vs
Chesterfield
1 – 0 Full time
| 15′ | Cameron Humphreys | ||
| 30′ | Jordan Gabriel | ||
| 33′ | Joel RandallJosh Koroma | ||
| 45′ | Onel Hernández | ||
| 54′ | Ryan Stirk | ||
| 59′ | Jaheim·Headley | ||
| 64′ | Lewis Gordon | ||
| 65′ | Max Watters Oliver Lynch | ||
| 66′ | Onel HernándezKeyrol Alexis Figueroa Norales | ||
| 69′ | Jon Edmund Alexander Brady | ||
| 73′ | George Cardinal Joseph·HallGeorge Byers | ||
| 73′ | Jaheim·HeadleyKyle John | ||
| 79′ | Kyle DempseyRhys Walters | ||
| 79′ | Lewis GordonTom Pearce | ||
| 79′ | Ryan StirkLiam Mandeville | ||
| 80′ | Louie MarshKiano Dyer | ||
| 84′ | Dilan MarkandayWill Grigg |
Port Vale
30%
Draw
29%
Chesterfield
41%
Match stats
| 5 | Shots | 8 |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Shots on target | 4 |
| 36 | Possession % | 64 |
| 0 | Corners | 10 |
| 14 | Fouls | 6 |
| 3 | Offsides | 5 |
| 4 | Saves | 2 |
| 222 | Accurate passes | 444 |
Port Vale vs Chesterfield overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Port Vale vs Chesterfield
| Probability | Port Vale | Draw | Chesterfield |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 22.1% | 30.1% | 47.7% |
| Market | 33.2% | 28.4% | 38.4% |
| Final | 30.5% | 28.8% | 40.7% |
| Edge | -11.1% | +1.8% | +9.4% |
Why Chesterfield
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.37 vs 0.86.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Chesterfield below the model: +9.4 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
88%
2+ goals
67%
3+ goals
39%
No goals
12%
Port Vale and Chesterfield expected goals
Port Vale
0.86
Chesterfield
1.37
Total expected goals: 2.23
Port Vale and Chesterfield attack and defence ratings
Port Vale
Attack
0.60 -40%
Defence
0.96 -4%
Chesterfield
Attack
1.24 +24%
Defence
1.03 +3%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Port Vale vs Chesterfield: result vs prediction
Port Vale 1 – 0 Chesterfield
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
Before and after this match
Port Vale vs Chesterfield markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Chesterfield | 40.7% | 2.46 | +9.4% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 61.4% | 1.63 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 55.7% | 1.80 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 71.2% | 1.40 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 52.4% | 1.91 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Port Vale | 30.5% |
| Draw | 28.8% | |
| Chesterfield | 40.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 38.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 61.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 44.3% |
| No | 55.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 59.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 69.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Chesterfield win | 23.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.0% | |
| Loss | 52.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.9% |
| 0-1 | 13.5% | |
| 0-0 | 12.0% |
Port Vale vs Chesterfield stats
Port Vale and Chesterfield recent form
| Port Vale |
WLWLLD |
| Chesterfield |
DWLWWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Port Vale and Chesterfield going into this match
Port Vale record
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.5 goals per match.
- They average 0.8 goals per game at home against 0.2 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 8 matches.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Chesterfield record
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.4 on the road.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Port Vale vs Chesterfield head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
5Port Vale wins
2Draws
3Chesterfield wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-22 | Chesterfield | Port Vale | EFL Trophy | 1-1 |
| 2025-01-25 | Chesterfield | Port Vale | League Two | 1-1 |
| 2024-09-14 | Port Vale | Chesterfield | League Two | 1-0 |
| 2021-07-31 | Chesterfield | Port Vale | Friendlies Clubs | 0-1 |
| 2018-03-30 | Port Vale | Chesterfield | League Two | 2-1 |
| 2017-08-19 | Chesterfield | Port Vale | League Two | 2-0 |
| 2017-04-08 | Chesterfield | Port Vale | League One | 1-0 |
| 2016-12-30 | Port Vale | Chesterfield | League One | 1-0 |
| 2016-04-02 | Chesterfield | Port Vale | League One | 4-2 |
| 2015-11-21 | Port Vale | Chesterfield | League One | 3-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Port Vale vs Chesterfield odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 33.4%, draw 28.3%, away 38.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.82 | 3.26 | 2.40 |
| Bet365 | 2.62 | 3.40 | 2.50 |
| BetVictor | 2.80 | 3.30 | 2.45 |
| Betano | 2.82 | 3.30 | 2.42 |
| Betfair | 2.50 | 3.90 | 2.50 |
| Dafabet | 2.75 | 3.50 | 2.50 |
| Marathonbet | 2.79 | 3.26 | 2.38 |
| Pinnacle | 2.94 | 3.30 | 2.47 |
| SBO | 2.47 | 3.01 | 2.31 |
| William Hill | 2.80 | 3.10 | 2.40 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
2.80 ▲ +0.16
X
3.28 ▼ -0.10
2
2.42 ▼ -0.03
13 snapshots recorded, from .