Chesterfield
vs
Colchester
Garuda Lions Prediction: Chesterfield
1 – 0 Predicted score · 12% model probability
Chesterfield vs Colchester overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Chesterfield vs Colchester
| Probability | Chesterfield | Draw | Colchester |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 48.6% | 28.6% | 22.9% |
| Market | 50.7% | 25.5% | 23.9% |
| Final | 50.1% | 26.2% | 23.6% |
| Edge | -2.1% | +3.1% | -1.0% |
Why Chesterfield
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.50 vs 0.95.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.85, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Chesterfield vs Colchester match preview
Chesterfield enters the match with a 53% probability of winning, bolstered by a recent form of D-W-L-W-W-D. Their expected goals stand at 1.80, indicating a strong offensive capability. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1, occurring with a 10% likelihood. Additionally, there is a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 57% probability that both teams will score.
Colchester, on the other hand, has struggled recently, with a record of L-D-D-D-L-L. They have an expected goals figure of 1.10, suggesting challenges in finding the back of the net. In their last two encounters, Chesterfield and Colchester have each secured one victory, indicating a competitive dynamic. The confidence grade for this match is C, reflecting moderate certainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Chesterfield and Colchester expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.45
Chesterfield and Colchester attack and defence ratings
Chesterfield
Colchester
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
Before and after this match
Chesterfield vs Colchester markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Chesterfield | 50.1% | 1.99 | -2.1% | 1.85 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 55.7% | 1.80 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 51.0% | 1.96 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 76.4% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 51.4% | 1.94 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Chesterfield | 50.1% |
| Draw | 26.2% | |
| Colchester | 23.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 44.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 55.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49.0% |
| No | 51.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 76.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 49.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Chesterfield win | 25.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.4% | |
| Loss | 51.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.5% |
| 1-0 | 11.7% | |
| 0-0 | 9.9% |
Chesterfield vs Colchester stats
Chesterfield and Colchester recent form
| Chesterfield |
LDWLWW |
| Colchester |
DLDDDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Chesterfield and Colchester season so far
Chesterfield record
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.4 on the road.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Colchester record
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Chesterfield vs Colchester head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-03 | Chesterfield | Colchester | League Two | 3-0 |
| 2025-10-04 | Colchester | Chesterfield | League Two | 6-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Chesterfield vs Colchester odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 51.0%, draw 25.2%, away 23.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.81 | 3.60 | 3.84 |
| Dafabet | 1.85 | 3.80 | 4.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
4 snapshots recorded, from .