Rochdale
vs
Grimsby
Garuda Lions Prediction: Grimsby
1 – 2 Predicted score · 7% model probability
Rochdale vs Grimsby overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Rochdale vs Grimsby
| Probability | Rochdale | Draw | Grimsby |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 44.6% | 28.0% | 27.5% |
| Market | 28.7% | 26.6% | 44.7% |
| Final | 32.7% | 26.9% | 40.4% |
| Edge | +15.8% | +1.4% | -17.2% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.11, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Rochdale vs Grimsby match preview
Rochdale faces Grimsby in an upcoming League Two match, with Rochdale having a 32% chance of winning, while Grimsby holds a 41% probability. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 0-1, occurring with an 8% likelihood. Rochdale's expected goals stand at 1.39, compared to Grimsby's 1.16, indicating a slightly stronger attacking performance from Rochdale.
In terms of recent form, Rochdale has recorded a mix of results with D-W-W-W-D-L, while Grimsby has struggled, posting L-L-L-W-W-D. The model suggests a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% likelihood that both teams will score. The confidence grade for this match is C, reflecting a moderate level of certainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Rochdale and Grimsby expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.66
Rochdale and Grimsby attack and defence ratings
Rochdale
Grimsby
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
Before and after this match
Rochdale vs Grimsby markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Grimsby | 40.4% | 2.48 | -17.2% | 2.11 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 50.5% | 1.98 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.3% | 1.84 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.1% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 72.5% | 1.38 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Rochdale | 32.7% |
| Draw | 26.9% | |
| Grimsby | 40.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 49.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 50.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.3% |
| No | 45.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 59.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 67.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Grimsby win | 11.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 16.1% | |
| Loss | 72.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.4% |
| 1-0 | 9.4% | |
| 2-1 | 9.2% |
Rochdale vs Grimsby stats
Rochdale and Grimsby recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Rochdale and Grimsby season so far
Rochdale record
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Grimsby record
- They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
Rochdale vs Grimsby head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Rochdale vs Grimsby odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 28.6%, draw 26.5%, away 44.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.19 | 3.45 | 2.05 |
| Dafabet | 3.35 | 3.60 | 2.11 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
4 snapshots recorded, from .