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League Two · Full time ·Matchday 13

Rochdale vs Accrington ST

0 – 5 Full time

14′Josh Woods
20′Josh WoodsAlex Henderson
23′David Tutonda
33′Donald Love
38′Charlie Warren
45′Tyler Walton
50′Alex Henderson
51′Tyler Walton
56′Sam·SherringLuke Hannant
56′Babajide Ezekiel AdeekoIan Henderson
58′Charlie Warren
66′Alex Henderson
70′Charlie Taskersam beckwith
70′Cian HayesJamie Paterson
73′Aidan borlandConor Grant
83′Glenn MiddletonZain Silcott-Duberry
87′sam beckwith
88′Charlie WarrenCharlie·Brown

Spotland, RochdaleReferee: R. Watkins

Rochdale 37%
Draw 28%
Accrington ST 35%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

5 Shots 26
1 Shots on target 10
58 Possession % 42
3 Corners 3
8 Fouls 13
2 Offsides 0
5 Saves 1
371 Accurate passes 247

Rochdale vs Accrington ST overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Rochdale vs Accrington ST

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityRochdaleDrawAccrington ST
Model37.4%27.7%34.9%
Market37.5%27.6%35.0%
Final37.4%27.6%35.0%
Edge-0.0%+0.0%-0.0%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Rochdale

  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Rochdale ↓ / Accrington ST → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 7% 7% 1 8% 13% 8% 2 9% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 93%
2+ goals 78%
3+ goals 53%
No goals 7%

Rochdale and Accrington ST expected goals

Rochdale 1.43
Accrington ST 1.37

Total expected goals: 2.80

Rochdale and Accrington ST attack and defence ratings

Rochdale

Attack 1.04 +4%
Defence 1.11 +11%

Accrington ST

Attack 1.06 +6%
Defence 0.98 -2%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Rochdale vs Accrington ST: result vs prediction

Rochdale 0 – 5 Accrington ST

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 13 fixtures

League Two

Before and after this match

Rochdale vs Accrington ST markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Rochdale 37.4% 2.67 -0.0% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 52.9% 1.89 — —
Both teams to score Yes 57.8% 1.73 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 72.4% 1.38 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 62.5% 1.60 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Rochdale37.4%
Draw27.6%
Accrington ST35.0%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.552.9%
Under 2.547.1%
Both teams to scoreYes57.8%
No42.2%
Double chance1X (home or draw)65.0%
12 (either side)72.4%
X2 (draw or away)62.6%
Handicap -1Rochdale win18.2%
Push (exactly one goal)19.3%
Loss62.5%
Correct score (top 3)1-113.1%
2-18.5%
1-28.2%

Rochdale vs Accrington ST stats

Rochdale and Accrington ST recent form

newest first
Rochdale DLDWWW
Accrington ST DWDWDD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Rochdale and Accrington ST going into this match

league record before kick-off

Rochdale record

  • They have won 4 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 12 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 12 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.

Accrington ST record

  • They have won 3 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
  • They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 12 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 12 matches.
  • 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Rochdale vs Accrington ST head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

7Rochdale wins 1Draws 2Accrington ST wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2022-08-30Accrington STRochdaleEFL Trophy3-3
2021-04-17RochdaleAccrington STLeague One3-1
2020-10-10Accrington STRochdaleLeague One2-1
2020-01-01Accrington STRochdaleLeague One1-2
2019-10-12RochdaleAccrington STLeague One2-1
2019-04-09Accrington STRochdaleLeague One0-1
2018-11-24RochdaleAccrington STLeague One1-0
2014-03-15RochdaleAccrington STLeague Two2-1
2013-09-21Accrington STRochdaleLeague Two1-2
2013-02-26RochdaleAccrington STLeague Two0-3

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Rochdale vs Accrington ST odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 37.4%, draw 27.8%, away 34.8%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.43 3.32 2.68
Bet365 2.50 3.40 2.60
BetVictor 2.55 3.30 2.70
Betano 2.52 3.40 2.65
Betfair 2.50 3.50 2.70
Dafabet 2.55 3.45 2.75
Marathonbet 2.43 3.32 2.68
Pinnacle 2.46 3.49 2.82
SBO 2.32 2.94 2.51
William Hill 2.50 3.30 2.62

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.50 ▲ +0.05
X 3.40 ▲ +0.08
2 2.68 —

5 snapshots recorded, from .