Rochdale
vs
Accrington ST
Garuda Lions Prediction: Rochdale
2 – 1 Predicted score · 8% model probability
Rochdale vs Accrington ST overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Rochdale vs Accrington ST
| Probability | Rochdale | Draw | Accrington ST |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 36.7% | 27.3% | 36.0% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 36.7% | 27.3% | 36.0% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Rochdale
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Rochdale vs Accrington ST match preview
Rochdale faces Accrington ST in a closely matched League Two encounter, with our model giving Rochdale a 37% chance of winning, while Accrington ST is slightly behind at 36%. The probabilities suggest a competitive game, with a draw also a viable outcome at 27%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1 in favor of Rochdale, occurring at an 8% likelihood.
Both teams have shown a propensity for goals, with expected goals sitting at 1.44 for Rochdale and 1.42 for Accrington ST. Our model indicates a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% probability that both teams will score. Recent form shows Rochdale with a mix of results, while Accrington ST has struggled, particularly with one loss in their last six matches.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Rochdale and Accrington ST expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.86
Rochdale and Accrington ST attack and defence ratings
Rochdale
Accrington ST
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
Before and after this match
Rochdale vs Accrington ST markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Rochdale | 36.7% | 2.73 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.5% | 1.83 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59.1% | 1.69 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 72.7% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 63.3% | 1.58 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Rochdale | 36.7% |
| Draw | 27.3% | |
| Accrington ST | 36.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 45.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59.1% |
| No | 40.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 64.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 63.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Rochdale win | 17.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.9% | |
| Loss | 63.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.9% |
| 2-1 | 8.4% | |
| 1-2 | 8.3% |
Rochdale vs Accrington ST stats
Rochdale and Accrington ST recent form
| Rochdale |
LDWWWD |
| Accrington ST |
WDWDDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Rochdale and Accrington ST season so far
Rochdale record
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Accrington ST record
- They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.